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The purpose of this study was to investigate the efficacy of hybrid forecasting models that integrate the classical Autoregressive integrated moving average framework, the support vector machines, the artificial neural networks, and random forest for predicting S&P 500 index returns. Utilizing daily share price data from 2015 to 2023, the methodology used a two-stage decomposition process where ARIMA captured linear dependencies, while the ML models projected nonlinear patterns within the residuals. The Out-of-sample analysis revealed that all the hybrid models significantly outperformed their standalone ARIMA benchmark across key accuracy metrics, such as mean absolute error, root mean squared error, and directional accuracy. The ARIMA-RF hybrid achieved the highest predictive accuracy and statistical significance, though it entailed a greater computational cost. The findings confirmed that the hybrid forecasting  capabilities to mitigate linear autocorrelation and ARCH effects, offering a robust approach for financial time series forecasting.

This study examines whether Large Language Models (LLMs) can support momentum-based breakout strategies for retail investors by analysing technical charts and validating statistical patterns. We analysed 3,621 price charts (2023–2025) to assess LLMs’ ability to identify trading setups and deviations from random walk behaviour. 13,624 tests were run on 1,204 trades using various statistical tests. While 70% of patterns conformed to random walk behaviour in the short term (7–15 days), momentum signals rose to 26.42% over longer periods (50–250 days). Complex prompting produced both higher random walk classification (72.41% vs. 69.29%) and better returns than single-shot prompting. Incorporating Gamma Exposure (GEX) improved caution but reduced return rates. Discrepancies of up to 20% between JavaScript and Python implementations underscored LLMs’ current limitations in statistical precision. Overall, LLMs may democratise technical analysis but still require human oversight, structured prompting, and validation through traditional methods.