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Diaspora remittances constitute a major source of external finance for Zimbabwe, reflecting sustained outward migration driven by economic instability and limited domestic opportunities. Despite their growing macroeconomic significance, remittance inflows have not translated into meaningful increases in gross capital formation or sustained rural development. This study examines this apparent contradiction, conceptualised as the migration paradox, by analysing the structural, institutional, and policy constraints that limit the conversion of remittances into productive investment in rural Zimbabwe. Using a Delphi methodology, the study draws on expert consensus from policymakers, academics, development practitioners, financial sector professionals, and diaspora engagement specialists through three iterative rounds. The findings reveal strong agreement that remittances are predominantly channelled toward household consumption, social reproduction, and risk mitigation, rather than capital accumulation. Weak financial intermediation, policy inconsistency, insecure property rights, high rural investment risk, and the absence of credible diaspora investment instruments emerge as key binding constraints to gross capital formation. While remittances contribute positively to household welfare, that is, enhancing food security, education, health, and housing, their impact on productive investment and rural structural transformation remains limited. The study concludes that the remittance–capital formation gap reflects institutional and governance failures rather than migrant preferences. It argues for repositioning diaspora remittances as a complementary source of development finance through credible policy reforms, improved investment climates, and financial innovations that mobilise remittances into gross capital formation and rural development.

This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between remittances and economic growth in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2022, using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach. To ensure the reliability, validity, and stability of the data, the study used the Jacque-Bera normality test, Breusch Godfrey serial LM test, and Bruesch-Pagan-Godfrey heteroskedasticity test together with a cumulative sum of recursive residuals and cumulative sum of recursive squares. The dependent variable in this study is domestic credit to the private sector as a percentage of GDP, and the independent personal remittances as a percentage of GDP, with the control variables per capita GDP growth, inflation, and gross fixed capital formation. The theoretical framework explores key perspectives, including the remittance-development optimist view, which posits that remittances can drive investment and economic progress; the supply-leading hypothesis, suggesting financial development as a precursor to economic growth; and the growth-led hypothesis, which sees economic development as a catalyst for financial development. The results from the ARDL test show no evidence of co-integration in the long run; however, in the short run, a significant positive effect on financial development is observed. This finding supported the complementarity theory and showed how remittances stimulate demand for financial services. Particularly problematic was the negative and statistically significant effect of inflation on financial development, which can potentially harm the performance of financial markets and slow down financial activities. The study suggests implementing targeted policies to limit parallel market activities and direct resources towards the formal sector.