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The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds model to test for cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto and Dolado and Lütkepohl (TYDL) model to examine the direction of causality between exports and economic growth for Botswana covering the period 1980 to 2021. Exports statistically positively affect economic growth both in the short-run and long-run and trade openness is detrimental to economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. Economic growth promotes exports both in the short-run and long-run. Economic growth granger causes exports and indirectly influences exports through trade openness and consumer price index. Furthermore, there exists bidirectional causality between economic growth and the consumer price index. The findings underscore the importance of maintaining a healthy and stable macroeconomic environment in Botswana. In addition, a well-rounded approach that considers both export-oriented industrialization and import substitution strategies remains essential for a robust economic growth trajectory.

This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between exports and economic growth in the Sothern Africa Customs Union (SACU), as well as the corresponding threshold level. The study used panel data covering the period 1980 to 2021 and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds to test for co-integration relationships, and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) to determine the respective threshold level.  Exports positively support economic growth both in the short-run and in the long-run in SACU. There is long-run bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. The minimum threshold for exports is 59%. That is, exports only start contributing significantly to economic growth when they are above 59% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). SACU should put in place economic policies and regulations that are skewed towards the improvement of the competitiveness of its local products on the global market and also strategically consider export-oriented industrialization strategies. Efforts should also be channeled towards the implementation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and harnessing the synergic benefits through the adoption of deliberate value chain mechanisms and initiatives.