Mobile Financial Services and the Dynamics of Bank Deposits: Evidence on Growth and Composition in Bangladesh
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This study examines the effects of Mobile Financial Services (MFS) on the growth and composition of bank deposits in Bangladesh over the period 2015-2024 based on bank-level panel data for 26 commercial banks. Using Fixed Effects (FE), Random Effects (RE), and Generalized Least Squares (GLS) estimation and controlling for COVID-19 dummy, the study finds that MFS transaction volume has a negative and statistically significant effect on deposit growth. This indicates that rising mobile financial activity slows the pace at which banks accumulate deposits. However, MFS positively and significantly affects both current and savings deposit levels, consistent with the financial inclusion channel through which mobile platforms channel funds into the formal banking system. The effect on total deposits and fixed deposits is statistically insignificant, indicating no direct substitution at the aggregate or long-term deposit level. Bank size and loan-to-deposit ratio are the most consistent determinants across all models. Non-performing loans negatively affect depositor confidence. The COVID-19 pandemic dampened deposit growth and total deposit accumulation but exerted limited influence on current and savings deposit levels. These findings suggest that MFS and traditional banking are complementary rather than substitutive, and that well-designed policy interventions can harness MFS-driven financial inclusion to strengthen rather than undermine the deposit base of commercial banks in Bangladesh.