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Financial institutions and banks are required to follow mechanisms to monitor the positions and create stimulas for sensible risk-taking by divisions a well as individuals. Risk measurement comprises of the quantification of risk exposures, whereas risk management demonstrates to the overall procedures by which managers fulfill these needs to identify the risks and recognise the category of the risks it faces. This research targerts on the economic instability faced by banks in financial arena in terms of the crises affairs in regard of economic distress. Here, the methodology followed is based on the CAMELS framework variables. CAMELS is a short form stands for: capital adequacy (C), asset (A), management (M), earnings (E), liquidity (L) and sensitivity to market risk (S). Based on these nomenclature, a couple of variables should be selected, such as capital asset ratio, cost income ratio, non-performing loan, non-interest income as component series and return on asset (ROA) as the reference series to identify turning points of economic volatility in banking sector of Bangladesh. Thus, by forecasting the directional deviations it could make financial policymakers aware of the changes at early stage in financial markets and banking industry and privilege them to undertake precautionary steps for preventive purposes. The constructed MPI should have a incredible lead time of about 5 to 7 months on an average in case of prediction against leading for the reference series. By renovating financial efficacy of venture banks, Bangladesh also should recover their subsequent banking system to execute these suggestions.

In perspective of the economic vulnerability faced by banks in financial sector, this study mirrors the methodology used by Shumway (2001) – the dynamic hazard model that is able to forecast systemic risk in financial market arena. Here, the terminology followed is based on the CAMELS framework variables: capital adequacy, asset, management, earnings, liquidity and sensitivity to market risk. The objective of this study is to construct a macroprudential indicator (MPI) for the case of Bangladeshi financial market. The result will then be tested for robustness with macro-stress test. Lagged independent variables will be used in the simple hazard model to allow early prediction of MPI in the year in which the crisis happens. The empirical findings can be used as a guideline for the Bangladesh Government and policy makers in accessing, examining and forecasting the health of the Bangladeshi financial system and formulate suitable financial system policies for control. MPI generates information about systemic risk allowing the detection of potential economic crises functioning as an early warning indicator. Government and policy makers will be able to make early preparation in cushioning any potential crises by means of the MPI. Thus the impact of the crises could be minimized and eventually reduce its impact on the Bangladesh economy. The specific objectives are to assemble a novel MPI that is able to recommend early signals of financial market vulnerability, to identify the MPI turning points and establish a comprehensive reference chronology for Bangladeshi financial market and to evaluate the predictive performance of newly constructed MPI on characterizing Bangladeshi financial sector.

Abstract For risk and capital measurement, banks and other financial institutions need to meet forthcoming regulatory requirements. However, it is a serious issue to think that meeting regulatory requirements is the sole or even the most important reason for establishing a scientific, sound risk management system. To direct capital to activities with the best risk/reward ratios, managers need reliable risk measures. To stay within the limits imposed by readily available liquidity, by creditors, customers, and regulators, they need estimates of the size of potential losses. They need mechanisms to monitor positions and create incentives for prudent risk-taking by divisions and individuals. Risk measurement deals with the quantification of risk exposures, whereas risk management refers to the overall process by which managers satisfy these needs and follows to define a business strategy, to detect the risks to which are visible, quantifying those risks, and to control and understand the nature of the risks it faces. This research focuses on the economic vulnerability faced by banks in the financial sector in terms of the crises issues perspective of economic distress. Here, the methodology followed is based on the CAMELS framework variables. CAMELS is an abbreviation for: capital adequacy (C), asset (A), management (M), earnings (E), liquidity (L) and sensitivity to market risk (S). Based on these terminologies, a couple of variables should be selected, such as capital asset ratio, non-performing loan, cost income ratio, industry production index, non-interest income, reserve of gold, inflation, stock turnover ratio, real interest rate as component series and return on equity (RoE) as reference series to identify the turning points of economic vulnerability in the banking sector in Bangladesh. Thus, by forecasting the directional changes it could make policymakers aware of changes in the financial markets and banking economy and allow them to undertake preventive steps for remedial purposes. The constructed MPI should have a remarkable lead time of about not less than 6 months on average in case of prediction against the leading for reference Series.By mending the financial efficacy of investment banks. Bangladesh also should improve their corresponding banking system to implement these suggestions.