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The purpose of this study is to explore the importance and ranking of technical analysis variables in Turkish banking sector. Random Forest method is used for determining importance scores of inputs for eight banks in Borsa Istanbul. Then two predictive models utilizing Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are built for predicting BIST-100 index and bank closing prices. Results of the models are compared by three metrics namely Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Median Absolute Error (MedAE). Findings show that moving average (MAV-100) is the most important variable for both BIST -100 index and bank closing prices. Therefore, investors should follow this technical indicator with respect to Turkish banks. In addition ANN shows better performance for all metrics.

<p>Developments in international financial markets concern both developed countries and developing countries closely. The transactions of institutions arising from of commercial activities display a more complex and more risky state in line with international economic developments. The globalization trend in the world economy, the extreme fluctuations in currencies, interests and product prices have rendered closely following up the developments in financial tools mandatory. Taking advantage of derivative financial tools which increase the revenue of assets by taking future risks into consideration, impact a decrease in debt costs and has the purpose of transferring risks are of vital importance with respect to the successful management of companies. At the present time in which international commerce, free market economy and globalization has gained in importance, one of the derivative products used in risk management and have a wide implementation area is swap transactions. Swap transactions can be expressed as a financial transaction including the exchange of interest, foreign currency or both between two or more parties. Swap transactions in particular are used for purposes such as protection against risks due to interest rates and exchange rates, ensuring low cost financing, changing the debt structure and entering different markets. In this study, the generally defined characteristics of swap transactions, which have an important standing within financial risk management and have been rapidly developing in the world in recent years and their recognition according to the International Accounting Standard 39 concerning the recognition of swap transactions, which has in particular termed the study have been focused on. In the framework of the standard, interest swap and foreign currency swap implementation study were included with respect to the matter.</p>

The purpose of this study is to explore the importance and ranking of technical analysis variables in Turkish banking sector. Random Forest method is used for determining importance scores of inputs for eight banks in Borsa Istanbul. Then two predictive models utilizing Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are built for predicting BIST-100 index and bank closing prices. Results of the models are compared by three metrics namely Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Median Absolute Error (MedAE). Findings show that moving average (MAV-100) is the most important variable for both BIST -100 index and bank closing prices. Therefore, investors should follow this technical indicator with respect to Turkish banks. In addition ANN shows better performance for all metrics.

<p>Developments in international financial markets concern both developed countries and developing countries closely. The transactions of institutions arising from of commercial activities display a more complex and more risky state in line with international economic developments. The globalization trend in the world economy, the extreme fluctuations in currencies, interests and product prices have rendered closely following up the developments in financial tools mandatory. Taking advantage of derivative financial tools which increase the revenue of assets by taking future risks into consideration, impact a decrease in debt costs and has the purpose of transferring risks are of vital importance with respect to the successful management of companies. At the present time in which international commerce, free market economy and globalization has gained in importance, one of the derivative products used in risk management and have a wide implementation area is swap transactions. Swap transactions can be expressed as a financial transaction including the exchange of interest, foreign currency or both between two or more parties. Swap transactions in particular are used for purposes such as protection against risks due to interest rates and exchange rates, ensuring low cost financing, changing the debt structure and entering different markets. In this study, the generally defined characteristics of swap transactions, which have an important standing within financial risk management and have been rapidly developing in the world in recent years and their recognition according to the International Accounting Standard 39 concerning the recognition of swap transactions, which has in particular termed the study have been focused on. In the framework of the standard, interest swap and foreign currency swap implementation study were included with respect to the matter.</p>