Modelling the determinants of net trade in communications, computer, and technology goods in South Africa: A linear regression Econometric approach (2015–2024)

Abstract

This paper analyses the factors influencing South Africa's net trade in communications, computer, and technology-related commodities with a linear regression econometric methodology from 2015 to 2024. Utilising Structuralist Trade Theory, Endogenous Growth Theory, and Digital Trade Theory, the study assesses the impact of high-technology exports and ICT-related service trade on the nation's net trade in goods within the Balance of Payments framework. The model utilises annual time-series data, integrating high-technology exports quantified as a proportion of manufactured exports and in absolute monetary terms, in conjunction with communications and computer service imports and exports. The empirical findings indicate that increases in the absolute value of high-technology exports and ICT service exports positively influence net trade performance, whereas ICT service imports have a detrimental effect. The decreasing proportion of high-technology exports in manufacturing indicates ongoing fundamental deficiencies in industrial advancement. The findings suggest that South Africa's trade sustainability relies on enhancing innovation-driven exports and diminishing dependence on imported digital services. The research offers pertinent insights for export diversification, digital industrial advancement, and sustained trade competitiveness in emerging economies.

Keywords: {'name': 'Net trade'}, {'name': 'Balance of Payment'}, {'name': 'High Technology export'}, {'name': 'Information and Communication Technology'}, {'name': 'Computer'}, {'name': 'Technology'}

Authors & affiliations

Ronewa Mudzanani
University of Venda

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