Governing land in times of crisis: How local institutions shape conflict escalation across the Central Sahel

Abstract

The Central Sahel, which includes Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, faces escalating violence driven by growing land pressure, environmental stress, and uneven institutional capacity. This study investigates how land use change influences conflict intensity by integrating geo referenced conflict data from ACLED, governance indicators from V Dem, and environmental and land use variables from PRIO GRID. Using a spatial difference in differences model applied to a 0.5 degree grid cell dataset, the analysis quantifies how cropland expansion, pasture contraction, and climate related shocks affect violent events under different levels of local governance quality. The results show that land use pressure significantly increases conflict intensity, but the magnitude of this effect depends strongly on institutional strength. Conflict levels rise by as much as 45 percent in weak governance areas following comparable land changes, while areas with stronger local institutions experience considerably lower escalation risks. Spatial spillover patterns further reveal that violence diffuses across local and national boundaries, especially along pastoral mobility routes and border zones. The study contributes new empirical evidence on the interaction between land dynamics and governance in shaping conflict and highlights the importance of strengthening local institutions, safeguarding mobility systems, and integrating land governance into regional peacebuilding strategies. The findings align with the objectives of Sustainable Development Goal 16 focused on peace, justice, and strong institutions.

Keywords: {'name': 'Sahel'}, {'name': 'Farmer herder conflict'}, {'name': 'Local governance'}, {'name': 'Resource competition'}

Authors & affiliations

Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie
North-West University

Emile Franc Doungmo Goufo
University of South Africa

Deposited references

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