Drivers of Manufacturing Sector Growth in Zimbabwe: Evidence from Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model
Robert Mwanyepedza ORCID ↗ · Ranganai Muneri ORCID ↗
International Journal of Research in Business and Social Science · 2026 · Vol. 15 / Issue 6 · 37-47
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Abstract
Zimbabwe’s manufacturing sector stands at a crossroads, caught between the promise of industrial resurgence and the persistent drag of structural constraints. This is occurring when Zimbabwe seeks to rebuild its productive base and grow its economy to achieve an upper middle economy by 2030. To promote the growth of the manufacturing sector in Zimbabwe, the ability to identify the determinants of manufacturing output growth is critical for evidence-driven policy direction. Otherwise, the sector risks remaining trapped in a cycle of stagnation rather than leading economic transformation. To provide evidence-based policy insights, the study adopted the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model using data from 1980 to 2023. The results revealed that external debt as a percentage of gross national income has a significant positive effect on manufacturing output growth, suggesting that external borrowing remains a critical driver of industrial expansion. Gross fixed capital formation and economic growth have shown a significant positive effect on manufacturing sector output growth, indicating that capital formation support growth in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, trade openness has exhibited a negative significant effect, highlighting the vulnerability of domestic manufacturing to import pressures. Domestic credit to private sector has shown an insignificant negative effect on manufacturing growth, implying that credit allocation to the private sector is not effectively supporting productive manufacturing sector activities. The study recommends redirecting domestic capital towards productive sectors, establishing policies that protect local manufacturing firms and promoting sustainable public debt management.
Keywords: {'name': 'Manufacturing Sector Growth'}, {'name': 'External Debt'}, {'name': 'Gross Fixed Capital Formation'}, {'name': 'Domestic Credit to Private Sector'}, {'name': 'ARDL'}
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Robert Mwanyepedza
Affiliation not supplied
Ranganai Muneri
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