Impact of global tariff shifts on South African manufacturing exports (2020–2025)
Masa Sylvester Motadi
International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy · 2026 · Vol. 8 / Issue 2 · 186-201
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Abstract
This study examines the effects of global tariff adjustments on the susceptibility of South African manufacturing exports from 2020 to 2025. The escalation of protectionism and uncertainty in trade policy has progressively impacted export performance in emerging manufacturing economies. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of tariff changes on export volume, sector composition, and firm-level adaptation techniques in South Africa's manufacturing sector.A quantitative methodology was utilised, employing secondary data from international trade and macroeconomic databases, encompassing sector-specific export statistics, tariff exposure metrics, exchange rate controls, and global demand variables. Descriptive statistical analysis and multivariate regression modelling were employed to investigate the correlation between tariff exposure and export performance in principal industrial sectors. The results indicate that tariff adjustments had a statistically significant adverse effect on the growth of industrial exports. A one-percent increase in tariff exposure correlated with an estimated 0.5–0.6 percent decline in export growth within tariff-sensitive sectors. The automotive and textile industries displayed the greatest susceptibility, whereas processed manufacturing exports showed enhanced resilience, possibly attributable to regional market diversification. company-level adaptation options, including regional market growth and investments in automation, alleviated export losses but demonstrated inconsistent success across different sectors and company sizes. This study enhances the trade resilience literature by offering empirical evidence that connects global tariff changes to sector-specific export susceptibility in a middle-income manufacturing economy. The results highlight the significance of industry enhancement, regional trade integration, and export diversification in reducing vulnerability to external trade disturbances. The findings provide significant insights for industrial and trade policies intended to improve South Africa's long-term manufacturing export competitiveness in the context of persistent global trade volatility.
Keywords: {'name': 'South African Manufacturing; Global Tariff Realignments; Export Vulnerability; Trade Protectionism; Manufacturing Export Performance'}
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Masa Sylvester Motadi
University of Venda
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