Investors can be confident of high credit ratings furnished by credit rating agencies for green bonds

Abstract

The study’s pertinence lies in its focus on the performance of green bond markets in addressing environmental concerns. The purpose of this study is to ascertain if current issuances of high credit ratings by credit rating agencies can be considered safe by investors, through the consideration of the margin of safety, amidst the prevailing high credit growth.  A quantitative research methodology determining the margin of safety of issuers, using operating incomes and interest expense, derived from annual financial statements of 30 randomly selected companies, which are considered adequate for inferential purposes, from the Climate Bond Initiative database is undertaken. The decline in EBIT before the balance after interest expense is paid becomes zero is ascertained in conjunction with the allocated credit rating.  A sampled mean of a margin of safety of 58.79 % leads to an estimated population mean results of a margin of safety above or equal 48% and below or equal to 68.41%, at 95% confidence level and a standard deviation of 27.41%. The corresponding investment credit ratings reflect a 77% in relative frequency of which 3.3% is assigned the highest AAA rating. The results demonstrate that it takes close to a minimum of 50% and a maximum of 68% deterioration in operating income before balances after interest expense are wiped out. Hence the study concludes that the prevailing credit ratings being issued by credit rating agencies can be trusted by green bond investors based on the substantive margin of safety figures of issuers.

Keywords: {'name': 'Credit Ratings, Green Bonds, Green Bonds Markets, Investors, Margin of Safety Rating agencies'}

Authors & affiliations

Chekani Nkwaira
University of South Africa

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