Public Expenditure and Economic Growth under Institutional-Capacity Thresholds in North Africa
Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie · Emile Franc Doungmo Goufo
International Journal of Business Ecosystem & Strategy · 2026 · Vol. 8 / Issue 5 · 745-754
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Abstract
This paper investigates whether government consumption becomes more growth-enhancing after institutional capacity crosses a minimum level in North Africa. Government consumption is a narrower measure than total public expenditure and excludes some capital spending and transfers. A panel of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Sudan, and Tunisia for 2003–2024 is assembled from the World Development Indicators and Worldwide Governance Indicators. The empirical design profiles candidate threshold values separately for government effectiveness and control of corruption in a dynamic common-factor panel model. It enforces a 15% minimum regime share and uses all 128 country-level Rademacher sign assignments for wild-cluster threshold tests. Candidate breakpoints occur at −1.336 for government effectiveness and −1.267 for corruption control. Conditional spending-growth slopes are larger above both candidates, but the threshold tests do not reject linearity (p = 0.217 and p = 0.388). Cutoffs and regime slopes also move substantially when Libya or Sudan is excluded, when the five-country core is used, and across alternative time windows. H1–H3 are therefore not supported: the evidence does not identify a stable institutional minimum at which public consumption reliably changes its growth effect. Policy should improve specific expenditure-conversion mechanisms rather than treat sample-specific governance breakpoints as targets.
Keywords: {'name': 'public expenditure'}, {'name': 'economic growth'}, {'name': 'government effectiveness'}, {'name': 'threshold regression'}, {'name': 'North Africa'}
Authors & affiliations
Suares Clovis Oukouomi Noutchie
North-West University
Emile Franc Doungmo Goufo
University of South Africa
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