Dynamic Causal Relationships between Stock Prices, Exchange Rates, Interest Rates, Gold Prices, and House Prices in Türkiye

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine the dynamic relationships among alternative investment instruments in Turkey using advanced time-series methods. The findings indicate evidence of granger causal relationships among some of the variables. However, the direction and statistical significance of these relationships vary across the variables examined. The analysis employs monthly data covering the period from February 2010 to December 2018. The stationarity properties of the variables were examined using the Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ADF) test. Causal relationships among the variables were subsequently investigated using the Toda–Yamamoto causality test. The findings indicate that there are statistically significant short-term and long-term relationships among alternative investment instruments. It was determined that the exchange rate and gold prices have on the stock market. Furthermore, its interest rates play in both financial markets and housing prices. This study contributes to the literature by examining the relationships between alternative investment instruments using linear methods. Moreover, the results offer researchers and policymakers important implications for financial stability for investors' portfolio diversification strategies at both the national and international levels.

Keywords: {'name': 'Stock market; exchange rate; interest rate; gold prices; house price index; causality test; portfolio diversification.'}

Authors & affiliations

Enes Cengiz Oguz
Anglia Ruskin University, Cambridge

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