Bussecon Review of Social Sciences

This paper examined the mediating role of trust in government on the influence of public governance quality indicators (accountability, political stability, government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption) on tax compliance in Africa. Cross-country data obtained from 38 African countries for 2015 was used and analyzed using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis. The study found that accountability, political stability, control of corruption, and trust have a significant influence on tax compliance among the sampled African countries, but government effectiveness, regulatory quality, and the rule of law and have insignificant influence on tax compliance. The result of the mediating effects revealed that trust mediates the influence of accountability and political stability on tax compliance in Africa. However, it failed to mediate the influence of government effectiveness, regulatory quality, rule of law, and control of corruption on tax compliance among sample African countries. The study offers theoretical insights on the role of trust as a mediator on social exchange relationships from the context of public governance quality on tax compliance. It also implies to the policymakers that building trust is an important mechanism through which the impact of public governance on tax compliance would be more pronounced. The study further calls for replication of its findings in other continents such as the Americas, Asia, and Europe.

This paper explores the nonlinear dynamics relationship between petroleum product prices and inflation in Nigeria. By focusing on the role of exchange rate fluctuations in amplifying the relationships, the paper employs a multiplicative interaction approach to address the nonlinear effects of petroleum prices on inflation. Utilizing data from 2016: Q1 to 2024: Q2 from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria, the study introduces interaction terms to capture how petroleum prices and exchange rates interact to influence inflation. The methodology includes static and dynamic panel estimators, with a focus on the within effect model to account for unobserved state-specific factors. Key findings reveal that AGO and PMS prices significantly drive both headline and food inflation, while DPK's impact varies, and GAS shows minimal effect. The study highlights those geographical factors—proximity to seaports and fuel depots—significantly influence inflationary pressures. States closer to these facilities experience lower inflation due to reduced distribution costs. This suggests that policies aimed at partial subsidization for states farther from key infrastructure could mitigate regional inflation disparities. The findings contribute to the understanding of inflation dynamics, emphasizing the need for targeted policy interventions tailored to regional economic conditions in Nigeria.

This paper investigated this disparity in the literature using Nigeria data from 1980 to 2016. In doing this, energy consumption was disaggregated, and their impacts on economic growth investigated using a modified Ordinary Least Square technique which allows for time gaps in the model. It was observed that only renewable energy impacted on economic growth in the long-run whereas non-renewable energy component impacted on economic growth in the short-run. Therefore, the study sees the impact of energy consumption on economic growth to be indistinct in Nigeria within the period under review. This further buttresses the need for improvement in electricity production and distribution in Nigeria. Given the importance of energy consumption on productivity, the study, therefore, suggests policies/measures that will bring about increasing the supply or improvement of energy production in the country.

Despite the institutionalization of operational risk management in banks and the strict supervision of bank regulators, operational risk events are still on the increase. It is becoming evident to banks that there is a need to identify the drivers of this risk and nib it at the root to reduce the probability of recurrence. Hence, this study examined the drivers of operational risks in Nigerian commercial banks and the extent to which each driver contributes to operational risk. To achieve the study’s objectives, primary data were collected from the Operational Risk Management Desks of six (6) sampled commercial banks and analyzed using SPSS and Microsoft Excel. The result showed that Internal processes, IT systems and Quality of Risk Officers are determinants of operational losses in banks. The internal process was however indicated as having the most impact. The study concluded that Internal Process is the major driver of operational risk in Nigerian Commercial banks. The researcher, therefore, recommends that bank management must have defined procedures for core activities and prioritize regular review of their critical processes to reduce operational risk events and the associated costs.

This research analyzed the insurance industry and economic growth in Nigeria between 1980 and 2015. Secondary data ranging from real gross domestic product, the premium of the insurance business, claim expenditure of insurance industry and inflation rate were utilized and sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) multiple regression techniques, Descriptive statistics, Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test of stationarity and ARDL Bound Test Co-Integration were adopted for the model in the Study. The findings revealed that the premium of the insurance industry (PMI) impacts negatively on economic growth both in the extended and short run period. The claim expenditure of the insurance industry (CEX) revealed a progressive relationship with economic growth in the long run and a negative relation with growth in the short run. We therefore conclude following the Keynesian theory of aggregate demand which states that, ‘’if we will have to wait till the long run, we will all be dead’’, that insurance industry in Nigeria has not impacted positively on economic growth of Nigeria within the period under review and its operations and investment have not been prominent and contributory to the growth and development of Nigeria. Based on these outcomes, we recommend amongst others, that more investment ought to be made towards the insurance industry in Nigeria especially in terms of proper policy formulation by the government that would channel funds and encourage competition among the players in the industry and invariably contribute to the growth of the economy.

There has been increasing studies that details the transmission channels through which financial development permeates to speed up growth to higher echelon. Studies have underpinned that financial development yield more growth when these channels are optimized. With studies on real sector performance sparse, this paper contributes to this discussion as it examined the effect of financial development in fostering industrial growth under the condition of high and low human capital endowment. This was investigated for a sample of five (5) West African Monetary Zone (WAMZ) countries from 1990 to 2022. The study developed a panel threshold regression (PTR) model where human capital functioned as threshold variable and data collected from the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), World Development Indicator (WDI) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) databases. The study finds a threshold effect of financial development on industrial sector growth. The PTR estimator shows financial development can produce more industrial growth if human capital exceeds a gross of 62.9493%. Additionally, other factors such as trade openness, natural resource rents and higher labour participation in economic activities support industrial sector growth. In the design of industrial growth enhancing policies, policy mandarins should implement measures that improve human capital and further develop the financial system by scaling up education expenditure to the UNESCO prescribed 26% of GDP, educating women, leveraging technology to improve human capital productivity and outcomes, reducing loan collateral requirements, strengthening legal frameworks, and boosting banking competition by allowing entrant of capitalized financial institutions and timely exist of insolvent ones.

Food prices in Nigeria have experienced significant increases due to rising fuel costs, unstable exchange rates, and socio-political challenges. This study examines the effects of fuel prices and exchange rate changes on food inflation using a Structural Vector Autoregressive (SVAR) model, which provides insights into both immediate and long-term impacts. Monthly data from June 2015 to May 2024 shows a stable long-term relationship between food inflation, energy prices, and exchange rates, making it clear that these factors are key drivers of inflationary trends in Nigeria. Our findings reveal that increases in fuel prices, particularly for petrol and diesel, drive up the cost of food production and transportation, with noticeable impacts appearing within three to six months. Similarly, shifts in exchange rates raise the cost of imported foods, with effects becoming evident in about two to ten months. Recent economic reforms, such as the fuel subsidy removal in 2023, have intensified inflationary pressures, exposing structural weaknesses in Nigeria’s food supply chain, including poor infrastructure and insecurity. The study recommended a direct approach to tackle food inflation, we recommend the creation of a Food Price Stabilization Fund (FPSF), which would help manage extreme price volatility caused by energy price fluctuations and exchange rate changes among others.

This study investigates the validity of Thirlwall’s Law in Nigeria, examining whether balance-of-payments constraints affects economic growth in Nigeria. Utilizing annual data from 1980 to 2020, the analysis employs an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model to estimate the income elasticity of imports and tests for cointegration to verify long-term equilibrium relationships. Findings reveal that Nigeria’s income elasticity of import demand exceeds unity, suggesting that income growth significantly heightens import dependency, which exacerbates balance-of-payments pressures. The results confirm Thirlwall’s hypothesis, indicating that Nigeria’s growth is constrained by its current account position. This study contributes to the literature by applying Thirlwall’s Law to a resource-dependent developing economy with high import reliance and limited export diversification. Key policy recommendations include the adoption of an import-substitution strategy to bolster domestic production in high-demand sectors, alongside export diversification efforts to reduce external dependency. These findings underscore the urgent need for structural reforms to stabilize the balance of payments and promote sustainable economic growth in Nigeria.

Conflict has been proven to be inescapable in the work environment because of the composite nature of organizations. The study on the Appraisal of the Relevance of Consultation in Organisational Conflict Management evaluated the relationship of consultation with conflict management in an organization. Deploying consultation strategies in conflict management douses the degree of impact and incidence of escalated conflict. The study administered a questionnaire to 200 respondents from Banking & Fintech, Manufacturing, Professional Institutes, Ministries, Departments and Agencies of Government, Telecommunication, and Oil & Gas sectors in Southwest Nigeria through Google Forms, while 177 responded. A questionnaire was designed and validated by Industrial and Labour Relations Experts before administering it. Data were analyzed using charts, tabulations, percentages, and Pearson Product Moment Correlation (PPMC) methods. Findings confirmed that relationships exist between conflict management and consultation as a form of social dialogue. Most respondents agreed in strong and mild terms that deploying social dialogue in conflict management can trim down conflict; facilitate collaboration; replace confrontational relationships; establish a harmonious industrial climate; and open and encourage channels for consensus building. Since conflict is an intrinsic feature of organizational relations, sustaining a mutual relationship requires a deliberate commitment to adopt conflict management strategies. Social dialogue through consultation proved to be a potent apparatus for promoting effective conflict management. This highlights the need for organizations to prioritize consultation as a strategic approach to conflict resolution, ensuring harmony and collaboration across workplace dynamics. Hence, it is recommended that consultation should be deployed as a procedure to manage conflict in an organization.

This paper explores the nonlinear dynamics relationship between petroleum product prices and inflation in Nigeria. By focusing on the role of exchange rate fluctuations in amplifying the relationships, the paper employs a multiplicative interaction approach to address the nonlinear effects of petroleum prices on inflation. Utilizing data from 2016: Q1 to 2024: Q2 from the National Bureau of Statistics and the Central Bank of Nigeria, the study introduces interaction terms to capture how petroleum prices and exchange rates interact to influence inflation. The methodology includes static and dynamic panel estimators, with a focus on the within effect model to account for unobserved state-specific factors. Key findings reveal that AGO and PMS prices significantly drive both headline and food inflation, while DPK's impact varies, and GAS shows minimal effect. The study highlights those geographical factors—proximity to seaports and fuel depots—significantly influence inflationary pressures. States closer to these facilities experience lower inflation due to reduced distribution costs. This suggests that policies aimed at partial subsidization for states farther from key infrastructure could mitigate regional inflation disparities. The findings contribute to the understanding of inflation dynamics, emphasizing the need for targeted policy interventions tailored to regional economic conditions in Nigeria.