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This paper examines the exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) and its impact on home inflation in Bangladesh, particularly in the post-pandemic era. Examining important economic factors including the nominal exchange rate (NER), money supply (M2), industrial production (IP), and global commodity index (GCI) using monthly data from January 2002 to August 2023 helps one to grasp their combined influence on consumer price inflation (CPI). By means of Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approaches, the study reveals important short-term and long-term dynamics. Contrary to patterns in many emerging nations, the results show that changes in exchange rates have apparently little impact on home prices. Rather, changes in the money supply and world commodities prices mostly influence inflation; the latter becomes a major factor. The study also exposes an unexpected positive link between industrial production and CPI, implying complexity in Bangladesh's production-driven economic structure. Moreover, this investigation underlines how complex monetary expansion, external commodities shocks, and devaluation of money interact to shape inflationary pressures. These results offer legislators important new perspectives and support strong monetary policies and focused involvement in world commodities markets to help to lower inflation. This study clarifies ERPT in developing countries and provides direction on inflation control techniques for Bangladesh.

This study investigates the long-term and short-term relationships between different monetary aggregates (M0, M1, M2, and M3) and GDP in Saudi Arabia using the Engle-Granger cointegration test and the Granger causality test. The results reveal that M2 has the most stable long-term relationship with GDP, making it the most reliable aggregate for policy formulation. M1 also shows a strong relationship, while M3’s connection is comparatively weaker. The causality analysis indicates bidirectional relationships between GDP and M1, M2, and M3, suggesting that changes in these aggregates can both influence and be influenced by economic activity. In contrast, M0 shows no significant long-term relationship and only responds to changes in GDP, indicating its limited policy relevance. These findings highlight the importance of using broader aggregates like M2 for effective policy targeting in Saudi Arabia’s evolving economic landscape. The study provides crucial insights for policymakers in selecting appropriate monetary aggregates for long-term planning and short-term economic stabilization.

Although the onset of the pandemic pressured monetary and fiscal policy across the globe, deficit finance was aided by the large, established debt markets in countries like the United States.  The expansionary efforts in emerging markets like Latin America put greater strains on their more limited capacity.  Our study analyzes data from seven Latin American countries, three European countries, three Asian countries, and the United States. We utilize panel vector autoregressive (VAR) models to explore the dynamic interactions and feedback mechanisms among the policy variables, while accounting for unobserved country-specific effects.  Our results demonstrate strong and significant interactions between monetary and fiscal policy around the time of the pandemic, with the primary causal effects running from fiscal to monetary policy.  Additionally, our results yield evidence of countercyclical policy reactions to inflation for both monetary and fiscal policy over the pandemic period.  

This research examines domestic debt, private sector lending, and economic development in emerging countries, focusing on Bangladesh. This analysis uses 1960–2022 Bangladeshi secondary data, World Bank World Development Indicators and Bangladesh Ministry of Finance economic statistics. Domestic debt and private sector credit affect emerging nations' economic development, according to this study's theoretical approach. This research examines the link between two factors to add to the literature and provide Bangladesh-specific insights. It is quantitative research that examines domestic debt, private sector credit, and economic development using regression analysis and statistical testing. The conclusions aids Bangladesh's economic development policymakers, economists, and stakeholders. Understanding national debt, financing from the private sector, and the advancement of the country's economy helps policymakers manage debt, allocate credit, and set economic policy. The conducted study also improves theoretical understanding of economic development in underdeveloped countries and illuminates Bangladesh's unique conditions. It examined household debt, private sector lending, and Bangladeshi economic development as well as examines the patterns of economic growth in emerging nations to enhance policy debates and broaden knowledge.

Central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) give rise to many possibilities including those of negative interest rates. A two-period decision model is presented between one central bank and one representative household. The central bank applies the Taylor (1993) rule to choose its interest rate. The household allocates its resources strategically to production, consumption, CBDC holding, and non-CBDC holding. The results are determined analytically and illustrated numerically by varying 19 parameter values. Interesting novelties of the article are that the central bank may choose negative CBDC interest rates when the household holds far more CBDC than non-CBDC, for low inflation rates, low real interest rates, low household’s potential production, low weight assigned to inflation in the Taylor (1993) rule, high target inflation rate, and high household’s production parameter. That usually causes the household to decrease its CBDC holding and increase its non-CBDC holding, production and consumption. The central bank may increase its CBDC interest rate to compete with an increasing non-CBDC interest rate if the household’s transaction efficiencies for CBDC and non-CBDC increase, or the household’s transaction efficiency for consumption decreases. Shocks to production, inflation and interest rates are analyzed.

In a two-period decision model, a central bank chooses a CBDC (central bank digital currency) interest rate and a representative household allocates resources into production, consumption, CBDC holding, and non-CBDC holding. The model’s analytical results and a plausible benchmark are compared with the empirics for the US, China and Russia. Interesting novelties of the article are that the model predicts that the US in 2021/2022 should choose  rather than 0.125% CBDC interest to combat its high October 2021 empirical inflation of 6.2%. That would induce households to hold more CBDC, hold less non-CBDC, and produce and consume less. In contrast, the model predicts that China should choose a low  rather than  CBDC interest rate. That would decrease each household’s CBDC holding and increase the low inflation. The model predicts that Russia should choose  rather than  CBDC interest rate. Russia’s strategy is remarkably consistent with the model’s predictions. The model predicts that the central bank should choose negative CBDC interest rate when the inflation and real interest rate are low, and the inflation target is high. The article shows how extremely high inflation, which increases the CBDC interest rate, makes production and consumption nearly impossible, unless the real interest rate is extremely negative.

Almost 2 years, the world has been facing the COVID-19 attack, there is no exception including Indonesia, which incidentally is a developing country. During the pandemic, various industries in all sectors experienced a decline in sales so that they need an injection of funds from investment where with the presence of investors, industry movements, include of small, medium, and large industries could increase and have an influence on national economic growth and development. As a country that has many islands, of course investment as a very important economic sector. Many factors influence developments in an area, some of which are inflation, interest rates, and the economy of each region. To see the development of investment in Indonesia during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2021Q3), this study uses panel data to be more specific and detail. The result of the research is that interest rates affect investment developments, while inflation and economic growth have no effect on investment developments in Indonesia.

This study aimed to investigate economic growth (RGDP) and its determinants such as internal debt (INDT), external debt (EXDT), interest rate (RINR), exchange rate (REXR) and trade openness (OPEN). Quarterly data from 1986-2021 used for this investigation were extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria.  Exploratory data analysis (EDA) revealed linear dependence of RGDP and the aforementioned determinants. The EDA and the variance inflation factor revealed the presence of multicollinearity caused by the INDT. As a result of this, the ridge regression method was used and it was found that the multicollinearity problem was addressed with appropriate ridge constant K= 0.29. Hence, ridge regression technique with constant K= 0.29 was a robust method to predict economic growth in Nigeria using the explanatory variables under consideration. Thus, served as a great benefit to the policy makers as the study provided a better understanding of the economic growth and the aforementioned determinants in terms of relationship and in particular the set back caused by EXDT on the economy of Nigeria. Also, the researchers benefited from this study as it engendered the understanding of the appropriate estimation technique to be used when the presence of multicollinearity was established in fitting a linear model. 

This article's main goal is to evaluate the degree of fiscal dominance in Uruguay in 1999-2019 to improve the understanding of economic policy for theoretical reasons and applied needs related to good practices and accountability. Two strategies are followed: one, to quantify the fraction of fiscal expenditures that are financed by monetary liabilities and, the other one, to analyze the effects of fiscal deficit on the price level and inflation because inflationary financing may prevent the central bank from reaching its inflation target. Both situations may subordinate the monetary policy to the fiscal policy, signaling fiscal dominance. In addition, through the analysis performed to assess the degree of fiscal dominance, it is possible to detect the main determining factors of the Uruguayan price level (inflation) formation during the last two decades. So far, preliminary results suggest that inflation is not exclusively a monetary phenomenon and point to some inflationary financing with a mild degree of fiscal dominance.

This paper inspects whether the South Africa Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements trigger have a causality with newspaper reports from the Mail and Guardian between 2010 and 2021. The study examines whether SARB’s post MPC statements’ readability is reciprocated in the subsequent Mail and Guardian newspaper articles. Using the Flesch Reading Ease Score and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score as the methodology, there is a systematic unpacking of both SARB’s MPC statements and newspaper reports from the Mail and Guardian which yield a dataset which is subsequently used to create a computation. This computation is then used to examine whether SARB’s MPC statements Granger cause the subsequent Mail and Guardian newspaper articles. Resultantly, the results show that there is no Granger causality between the SARB’s MPC statements and the Mail and Guardian’s Flesch Reading Ease Score and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) migrated to inflation targeting in 2000 and has since embarked on a trajectory of transparency. This has taken the shape of releasing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements other forms of communication. This paper examines SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment between 2000 and 2021 using the Besigye-Segawa’s TextBlob polarity and subjectivity calculator which measures central bank communication tone and sentiment using the Loughran-McDonald dictionary’s word classification to gauge polarity and subjectivity. The study goes on to explore causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on inflation expectation results from the Bureau of Economic (BER) results survey. The systematic analysis shows a causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on succeeding BER’s inflation expectations results therein justifying the need for effective communication as SARB’s MPC communications’ polarity and subjectivity ultimately have a causal effect on inflation expectations. therein justifying the need for effective communication. As central bank tone and sentiment studies are only emerging in many emerging and frontier markets, this study lays a foundation for future exploration of effects of central bank communication on the expectations channel.

This study investigates the relationship between the three measures of manufacturing performance [manufacturing production growth rate (MPGR), share of manufacturing in GDP (SMGDP), capacity utilization rate (CUR)] and the variables of financial system stability [exchange rate (EXR), fiscal deficit (FD), lending rate (LR), saving rate (SR), consumer price index (CPI), bank loan to manufacturing sector (BLM)]. The study uses Johansen cointegration and Parsimonious error correction model as the estimation techniques. Findings from the results of the study reveals that there is a long-run relationship between the three measures of manufacturing performance (i.e. MPGR, SMGDP and CUR) and the variables of financial system stability in Nigeria during the period under review. Also, consumer price index (CPI) and lending rate (LR) have negative and significant impacts on manufacturing production growth rate (MPGR) in Nigeria. In addition, fiscal deficit (FD) and lending rate (LR) have significant and negative effect on share of manufacturing in GDP (SMGDP). Lastly, banks loan to manufacturing sector (BLM) has significant negative effect on capacity utilization rate (CUR) while exchange rate (EXR) has positive and significant impact on capacity utilization rate (CUR).

An increase in MSMEs in large numbers is very instrumental in increasing economic growth in developing countries, including Indonesia. The research objective is based on identifying the effect of investment credit, interest rates, and labor on economic growth through the role of MSMEs. The design of this research is descriptive-verification to present a structured, factual and accurate picture and test hypotheses empirically through the MRA model. Empirical analysis proves that investment credit and interest rates through the role of MSMEs can influence positively and significantly on Indonesia's economic growth. In other results, it appears that the role of MSMEs is less able to mediate the effect of labor on Indonesia's economic growth. This fact is based on a negative and insignificant relationship. In a sentence or two, enter the implications and limitations of your research. In Indonesia, increasing bank lending to MSMEs in practice is undermined by lending policies by banks and by macroeconomic factors (economic growth, interest rates, investment credit, and labor).

The main purpose of this study is to investigate if determinants that we selected in our analysis have any effects on inflation rate in Western Balkans Countries[1] by using panel data for the period of 2001-2017, in yearly basis in total of 102 observation. The study used quantitative analysis approach and secondary data by applying the multivariate time series, respectively vector error correction model [VECM]. Multivariate time series was applied to investigate whether the budget deficit and other explanatory variable have any significant impact on inflation rate. The results from our analysis shows that three of four determinates that we used are significant on inflation rate. The model summaries statistics for inflation rate which shows that inflation rate has a moderate correlation with explanatory variables that we used in our model, that explanatory variables explain 45.5 percent of dependent variable and we can conclude that a model is a proper and fit. The results suggest that one percent point increase in budget deficit to GDP ratio is associated with about a 9.34 percent point increase in inflation rate.  The overall inference is that the ratios that we selected has a significant influence on the inflation rate in Western Balkans Countries.      [1] Western Balkans Countries: Albania, Bosnia & Hercegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia and Serbia.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate inflation rate and its impact on the growth rate or to GDP growth for Eurozone countries, using panel data for the period 1997-2017, on an annual basis with a total of 257 observations. For conducting the study, and achieving results, a multiple linear regression model with the least squares regression is used. Moreover, multiple linear regression analysis has been applied in order to investigate whether Inflation rate, as an independent variable, has any significant impact on economic growth. Consequently, in order to test the data used in the model we have applied diagnostic tests, such as Durbin-Watson test to analyze the correlation of serial correlation, as well as the Breusch-Pagan test for heteroskedasticity. The tests’ results give us strong indications that the model has no relation between of serial correlation and there is no heteroskedasticity either. The study conducted shows results generated from the model, and according to the econometric results indicate that Inflation rate has positive impact on the economic growth rate for euro area.

<p><em>This paper gives an overview of the concept of macroeconomic stabilization and, its measurement, goals and policy instruments. It starts with a review of the concept, measurement and goals of macroeconomic policy and, the goals performance measurement. After this, the paper looks at macroeconomic policies and its instruments, and macroeconomic stabilization problems. The next section examines the applicability of the stabilization instruments under various economic conditions and, this section is followed by a conclusion.</em></p>

<p><em>The main purpose of this study is to evaluate whether the bank lending channel exist or not. Within this context, quarterly data of for the periods between 2002q1 and 2016q4 was taken into the consideration. Additionally, VAR model was used to reach the objective. According to the result of impulse response function, it was reached that</em><em> producer price index, real exchange rate and policy rate are effective determinants. Additionally, banks balance sheet has important and positive influence on total credits but industrial production index is regarded as partially effective. While considering this result, it was also found that both bank balance and macroeconomic variables used in this study is the main determinants of bank total credit.</em></p>

<p><span>Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiy</span><span>e Cumhuriyet Merkez Bankası’nın (TCMB) 2008 Küresel Ekonomik Kriz sonrası <span>makro ihtiyati para politikası uygulamalarını incelemek ve etkilerini değerlendirmektir.</span></span><span>Küresel krize karşı 2010 yılından itibaren TCMB’nin eski politika çerçevesinde kullanılan politika faizinin yanı sıra makro ihtiyati politikalar çerçevesinde uyguladığı başlıca para politikası araçları; zorunlu karşılıklar, faiz koridoru, likidite yönetimi ve rezerv opsiyon mekanizması gibi araçlardan oluşmaktadır. </span></p><p><span>Çok sayıda politika aracının varlığının yarattığı karmaşıklığın yanı sıra, bu araçların<span> etkinliğine ilişkin ampirik sonuçların kısıtlı olması, uygulama geçmişinin kısa süreli olması ve politik müdahaleler doğru bir değerlendirmeyi güçleştirmektedir. </span></span></p>

<p>There is a long discussion among academics and central bankers about the theories of money supply. According to the exogenous view, central banks have the full control over money supply via policy actions including the adjustments of interest rates and reserve ratios, both of which alter commercial banks’ lending decisions. However, the theory of endogenous money supply emphasizes the role of demand for bank loans in money creation. More specifically, banks create money by meeting the demand of economic agents. In this study, we investigate which of the money supply theories holds in Turkish economy for the period 2006-2015 by employing cointegration and causality tests. Our findings show that the causality runs from bank loans to money supply both in the short and long terms, which supports the endogenous view in a sense that central bank and the banks fully meet the total demand for money in Turkish economy.</p>

<p><em>The link between </em><em>stock market development and economic activity has always been the subject of considerable debate in the field of economics and it raises empirical question whether stock market development influences economic activity or whether it is a consequence of increased economic activity. This study attempts to investigate the direction of causality between stock market development and economic growth in the Indian context. Using the cointegration and causality tests for the period June 1991 to June 2013, the study confirms a well defined long-run equilibrium relationship between the stock market development indicators and economic growth in India. The empirical results show bidirectional causality between market capitalisation and economic growth and unidirectional causality from turnover ratio to economic growth in the long-run and short-run. By and large, it can be inferred that the stock market development indicators viz. market capitalisation and turnover ratio have a positive influence on economic growth in India.</em><em></em></p>