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The article seeks to provide innovative measures aimed at addressing the delivery of affordable housing market in South Africa in view of diminishing fiscus and rising interest rates. It defines the mortgage finance trends in South Africa through analysis of primary data from financial institutions to establish the level of activity and contrarians. Upon understanding the market challenges, the author recommends sound proposition with respect to engineering responsive interventions diversify with respect to demand and supply side blockages in the Affordable Housing Market in South Africa. Based on the findings, the author has found that interest rate increases have hurt the property market activity greatly and lenders in turn also apply very stringent underwriting standards at the height of high interest rate cycles. Furthermore, it has been established the mortgage credit impairments have increased resulting in significant credit loss as the majority of low- and middle-income households are overindebted and mortgage debtors are on the verge of being foreclosed on due to the risk of default. The article concludes by providing recommendations as interventions and measures aimed at upscaling the delivery of affordable housing in South Africa. 

This study tests for the applicability of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) and Bounded rationality theories on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE). This is in order to determine the influence of behavioural risk factors on the efficiency of the stock market. Behavioural theories show a gap in the theory of Efficient Market Hypothesis. Using quantile regression, our study established the applicability of the Adaptive Market Hypothesis on the JSE. Past market returns were shown to be significant in predicting future returns and thus did not follow a random walk. The lagged return increased at higher quantiles and differed with changes in market conditions (i.e. pre-financial crisis, financial crisis and post-financial crisis).  Thus, the predictability of returns varies with a change in market conditions. This paper is focused on only on the Johannesburg stock exchange in South Africa, more specifically the movement is the all share index. The findings should be able to be applied to emerging and developed economies. Business confidence is found to have a negative relationship with returns showing a lag in time for sentiment to be incorporated in prices. In contrast, consumer confidence is found to have a positive relationship with returns. In summary, investors are shown to be influenced by fundamental and behavioural factors.

The paper’s objective was to investigate the relationship between COVID-19 and South Africa financial stock markets. The pandemic worsened South Africa's unstable financial condition and societal problems: business was severely disrupted, as were the travel industry, hospitality, food security, small businesses, and many other sectors. The results show that the COVID-19 pandemic triggered high and longer-lasting financial volatility in the markets. The higher level of volatility persistence suggests a prolonged period of increased uncertainty. Overall, the uncertainty about the vaccine's effectiveness towards the pandemic provides low expectations about the future of the stock market, since there are variants that are still being discovered.

In the preceding decade, the South African economy has experienced challenges due to global disruptive events, hence, the implementation of risk mitigation strategies becomes a priority in volatile markets. Stable distributions account for skewness and heavy-tailed behaviour which are frequently observed in financial data. This study aims to investigate the fit of stable distributions for three FTSE/JSE indices and the USD/ZAR currency exchange rate. The maximum likelihood method was applied to fit Nolan’s -parameterization stable distribution. Value at Risk (VaR) is measure assessing market risk, therefore, VaR estimates and Kupiec likelihood test are applied to evaluate the extreme tail behaviour of the fitted stable model. Results show the robustness of stable distributions in the long and short position for each daily returns. This research validates the use of stable distributions aimed at capturing the characteristics financial data. Those concerned with curtailing losses and investigating alternatives for financial modeling in the South African financial industry may benefit the most by using stable distributions.

This study aimed to investigate economic growth (RGDP) and its determinants such as internal debt (INDT), external debt (EXDT), interest rate (RINR), exchange rate (REXR) and trade openness (OPEN). Quarterly data from 1986-2021 used for this investigation were extracted from Central Bank of Nigeria.  Exploratory data analysis (EDA) revealed linear dependence of RGDP and the aforementioned determinants. The EDA and the variance inflation factor revealed the presence of multicollinearity caused by the INDT. As a result of this, the ridge regression method was used and it was found that the multicollinearity problem was addressed with appropriate ridge constant K= 0.29. Hence, ridge regression technique with constant K= 0.29 was a robust method to predict economic growth in Nigeria using the explanatory variables under consideration. Thus, served as a great benefit to the policy makers as the study provided a better understanding of the economic growth and the aforementioned determinants in terms of relationship and in particular the set back caused by EXDT on the economy of Nigeria. Also, the researchers benefited from this study as it engendered the understanding of the appropriate estimation technique to be used when the presence of multicollinearity was established in fitting a linear model. 

Financial inclusion has become a topic of discussion in emerging and developing nations since the majority of people continue to lack access to either formal or informal financial services. In many countries, the post office is seen as a vehicle for financial inclusion due to its extensive network. In addition, with the decline in sales of their core business, traditional mail has exacerbated the need for the post office to venture into financial services whilst simultaneously answering the call to bridge the gap in society, especially for the un-banked and under-banked communities. Moreover, there is a need for post-offices to protect their long-term vitality as a business. This paper provides a theoretical perspective of financial inclusion, the role that the post office can play and the challenges preventing an effective rollout of financial services. This review can help postal managers, governments and policy-makers to understand how they can effectively use the post office to serve the un-banked communities. In addition, the study has enriched the academic discourse by providing literature on postal financial services and financial inclusion.

This paper inspects whether the South Africa Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements trigger have a causality with newspaper reports from the Mail and Guardian between 2010 and 2021. The study examines whether SARB’s post MPC statements’ readability is reciprocated in the subsequent Mail and Guardian newspaper articles. Using the Flesch Reading Ease Score and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score as the methodology, there is a systematic unpacking of both SARB’s MPC statements and newspaper reports from the Mail and Guardian which yield a dataset which is subsequently used to create a computation. This computation is then used to examine whether SARB’s MPC statements Granger cause the subsequent Mail and Guardian newspaper articles. Resultantly, the results show that there is no Granger causality between the SARB’s MPC statements and the Mail and Guardian’s Flesch Reading Ease Score and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score.

  Risk management and prediction of market losses of cryptocurrencies are of notable value to risk managers, portfolio managers, financial market researchers and academics. One of the most common measures of an asset’s risk is Value-at-Risk (VaR). This paper evaluates and compares the performance of generalized autoregressive score (GAS) combined with heavy-tailed distributions, in estimating the VaR of two well-known cryptocurrencies’ returns, namely Bitcoin returns and Ethereum returns. In this paper, we proposed a VaR model for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns, namely the GAS model combined with the generalized lambda distribution (GLD), referred to as the GAS-GLD model. The relative performance of the GAS-GLD models was compared to the models proposed by Troster et al. (2018), in other words, GAS models combined with asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD), the asymmetric Student’s t-distribution (AST) and the skew Student’s t-distribution (SSTD). The Kupiec likelihood ratio test was used to assess the adequacy of the proposed models. The principal findings suggest that the GAS models with heavy-tailed innovation distributions are, in fact, appropriate for modelling cryptocurrency returns, with the GAS-GLD being the most adequate for the Bitcoin returns at various VaR levels, and both GAS-SSTD, GAS-ALD and GAS-GLD models being the most appropriate for the Ethereum returns at the VaR levels used in this study.    

The paper focuses on a scantly researched phenomenon, namely, the extent to which financial inclusion is influenced by corporate governance practices. The question that normally arises is whether corporate governance practices are tailored to supporting the financial inclusion mandate. The other question is whether there are certain corporate governance practices that advance financial inclusion. This paper reviews extant empirical literature on these matters with a view of stimulating debate on the subject. Cognisant that institutions that advance financial inclusion are largely financial institutions, the starting point is relating to contemporary corporate governance practice in financial institutions. We know that financial institutions belong to a specific class of corporations whose failure affects society at large because of the financial services they provide. As a result, they are heavily regulated and their corporate governance structures are bound to differ from those of conventional firms. Similarly, we know that financial inclusion institutions are special types of financial institutions with mandates to provide financial services to underserved population segments which equally require special treatment. The scant literature available shows, albeit not conclusive, some evidence of a positive relationship between sound corporate governance and financial inclusion. However, more research on how corporate governance affects different dimensions of financial inclusion is recommended.

The purpose of this article was to assess the impact of financial market liquidity on international capital flows in emerging markets. Specifically, the research investigates the effect of bond market liquidity and stock market liquidity on foreign portfolio investments using data for five emerging African countries, being Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria and South Africa, for the period 2000 to 2020. The data was sourced from the Bloomberg and World Bank (WDI) databases. Panel data analysis (fixed effects model) was undertaken using three different liquidity measures: the effective spread; Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity measure; and market impact as measured by trading volume. Our findings revealed mixed results. It was found that stock market liquidity attracted foreign portfolio investments. Although bond market liquidity, as measured by the volume of trade, promoted foreign portfolio investment, it was different for the effective spread, as the higher the effective spread, the higher the inward FPI flows, and vice versa. Results on the effects of the bond effective spread on FPI show that as long as the bonds are above the investable grade, investors are not discouraged by the cost of trading. Our findings thus confirm that FPI inflows are predisposed on liquid and efficient host country financial markets. Further, the entrance of foreign investors in the host country’s domestic financial markets, leads to the enhancing of liquidity in the local market, thus increasing risk sharing between local and foreign investors.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) migrated to inflation targeting in 2000 and has since embarked on a trajectory of transparency. This has taken the shape of releasing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements other forms of communication. This paper examines SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment between 2000 and 2021 using the Besigye-Segawa’s TextBlob polarity and subjectivity calculator which measures central bank communication tone and sentiment using the Loughran-McDonald dictionary’s word classification to gauge polarity and subjectivity. The study goes on to explore causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on inflation expectation results from the Bureau of Economic (BER) results survey. The systematic analysis shows a causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on succeeding BER’s inflation expectations results therein justifying the need for effective communication as SARB’s MPC communications’ polarity and subjectivity ultimately have a causal effect on inflation expectations. therein justifying the need for effective communication. As central bank tone and sentiment studies are only emerging in many emerging and frontier markets, this study lays a foundation for future exploration of effects of central bank communication on the expectations channel.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the suitable arbitrage-free term-structure model that might be able to fit the South African inflation-indexed spot-rate curve. The instrument has relatively less tradability in the market, which then translates into a lack of adequate data for bond valuation/pricing. Pricing deviations might give inflated/deflated projections on the value of government debt; consequently, higher estimated interest cost to be paid. A proper valuation of these instruments is mandatory as they form part of government funding/borrowing and the country’s budgeting processes in the medium term. The performance of newly developed non-linear multifactor models that follows the Nelson-Siegel (1987) framework was compared to the arbitrage-free Vasicek (1977) model and linear parametric models to assess any significant deviations in forecasting the real spot-rate curve over a short period. Models with constant parameters (i.e. linear parametric, cubic splines, Nelson-Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994)) gave a perfect fit, they proved to marginally lose fitting capabilities during periods of higher volatility. Therefore, it could be concluded that the application of either Nelson-Siegel (1987) model or Svensson (1994) model on forecasting South African real spot-rate curve gave a perfect fit. However, for a solid conclusion to be derived, it is imperative to explore the performance of these models over a period of stressed market and economic conditions.

Averting the risk of falling short on the expected profitability of a bank requires the knowledge of the underlying determinants. Knowledge of long-run underlying determinants of profitability assists banks in comprehensive planning. In this backdrop, the paper seeks to identify the long-term fundamental risk factors and their impacts on their profitability. The FM-OLS regression method is employed using annual data on the components of profitability as well as internal and external determinants of profitability of Amalgamated Bank of South Africa (ABSA) bank from 1998 to 2014. The study is particularly importance since bank-specific studies aimed at identifying long-run fundamental factors of profitability has not been given much attention in literature. Evidence from the study indicates that profitability of ABSA is cointegrated with its determinants. It is further observed that, with the exception of inflation and GDP, all the determinants have significant long-term impact on profitability. However, although size has significant impact on net interest margins, its impact on return on equity is insignificant. The results further suggest that capital and stock market capitalization pose risk to aggregate profitability of ABSA. It is therefore recommended that in future, ABSA should resort to optimal equity financing to maximize its expected profitability.

The purpose of the study is aimed at determining the financial socialisation of accounting students at South African universities and the factors that influence financial socialisation. The research used statistical techniques such as the structural equation modelling methodology to identify financial socialisation influencers and regression analysis to analyse associations between financial socialisation and socio-demographic variables among 1582 students. The study's results indicate that financial socialisation agents such as relatives, friends, and social media have little impact on most students' financial decisions. The majority of accounting students are often found to be financially socialised by their immediate family members rather than peers or social media factors. The regression analysis results confirmed this observation, revealing a statistically significant association between the parents' level of education and the students' financial socialisation. This study recommends that financial socialisation can be greatly improved by raising parents' educational levels and instilling financial education in university students' curricula, especially in South Africa.

<p>The key to long-term success in banking is consistent improvement and delivering of quality product and or value-added service that conform to the expectations of customers. IT-innovative products/services and processes (technological innovation) facilitate these key elements of customer satisfaction and critical factors for retaining valued customers. The objective of this paper is to explore the effects of technological innovation on service consistency and the consequential effects on customer satisfaction and loyalty covering seven universal banks in Ghana. The results of the empirically tested model reveal new/improved product/process functionalities, service consistency and innovative product/process satisfaction contribute significantly to customer loyalty (<em>p < 0.001</em>). Service consistency has a marginal higher impact (<em>β </em>= .373) on customer loyalty than the others. Product/process quality contributes significantly (with <em>β</em> ranging from .345 to .742 and <em>p < 0.001</em>) to each of the above three antecedents than all other items.</p>

This article reflects on social welfare system and governance of housing markets from an end-user perspective. The article criticallyanalyses the way in which social welfare has correlated to unsustainable development and created self entitlement behaviours andattitudes in the South African low income housing market. The phenomenon was demonstrable by empirical research whosefindings confirmed an existence of an association between a fully subsidized social housing model (as underpinned by South Africa’s social welfare) and propensity to default on mortgages. The study found that the risk of default by homeowners in the low income housing market in South Africa is influenced by government’s housing grant model. In other words, the research established that the principle of servicing a mortgaged starter property (that is almost similar to a government free house by both structure and design) is not universally accepted by homeowners of these mortgaged houses. The unintended consequences are that the system has created indefinite expectations that potentially could; (i) erode the country’s balance sheet; (ii) add to non-payment behaviour; (iii) pressurize the economic and credit systems; (iv) propagate entitlement attitudes and mindsets; (v) create social instability and (v) widened the country’s balance of payment deficits.