Explore publications.

Financial inclusion has become a topic of discussion in emerging and developing nations since the majority of people continue to lack access to either formal or informal financial services. In many countries, the post office is seen as a vehicle for financial inclusion due to its extensive network. In addition, with the decline in sales of their core business, traditional mail has exacerbated the need for the post office to venture into financial services whilst simultaneously answering the call to bridge the gap in society, especially for the un-banked and under-banked communities. Moreover, there is a need for post-offices to protect their long-term vitality as a business. This paper provides a theoretical perspective of financial inclusion, the role that the post office can play and the challenges preventing an effective rollout of financial services. This review can help postal managers, governments and policy-makers to understand how they can effectively use the post office to serve the un-banked communities. In addition, the study has enriched the academic discourse by providing literature on postal financial services and financial inclusion.

This paper inspects whether the South Africa Reserve Bank’s (SARB) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements trigger have a causality with newspaper reports from the Mail and Guardian between 2010 and 2021. The study examines whether SARB’s post MPC statements’ readability is reciprocated in the subsequent Mail and Guardian newspaper articles. Using the Flesch Reading Ease Score and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score as the methodology, there is a systematic unpacking of both SARB’s MPC statements and newspaper reports from the Mail and Guardian which yield a dataset which is subsequently used to create a computation. This computation is then used to examine whether SARB’s MPC statements Granger cause the subsequent Mail and Guardian newspaper articles. Resultantly, the results show that there is no Granger causality between the SARB’s MPC statements and the Mail and Guardian’s Flesch Reading Ease Score and Flesch-Kincaid Grade Level score.

  Risk management and prediction of market losses of cryptocurrencies are of notable value to risk managers, portfolio managers, financial market researchers and academics. One of the most common measures of an asset’s risk is Value-at-Risk (VaR). This paper evaluates and compares the performance of generalized autoregressive score (GAS) combined with heavy-tailed distributions, in estimating the VaR of two well-known cryptocurrencies’ returns, namely Bitcoin returns and Ethereum returns. In this paper, we proposed a VaR model for Bitcoin and Ethereum returns, namely the GAS model combined with the generalized lambda distribution (GLD), referred to as the GAS-GLD model. The relative performance of the GAS-GLD models was compared to the models proposed by Troster et al. (2018), in other words, GAS models combined with asymmetric Laplace distribution (ALD), the asymmetric Student’s t-distribution (AST) and the skew Student’s t-distribution (SSTD). The Kupiec likelihood ratio test was used to assess the adequacy of the proposed models. The principal findings suggest that the GAS models with heavy-tailed innovation distributions are, in fact, appropriate for modelling cryptocurrency returns, with the GAS-GLD being the most adequate for the Bitcoin returns at various VaR levels, and both GAS-SSTD, GAS-ALD and GAS-GLD models being the most appropriate for the Ethereum returns at the VaR levels used in this study.    

The paper focuses on a scantly researched phenomenon, namely, the extent to which financial inclusion is influenced by corporate governance practices. The question that normally arises is whether corporate governance practices are tailored to supporting the financial inclusion mandate. The other question is whether there are certain corporate governance practices that advance financial inclusion. This paper reviews extant empirical literature on these matters with a view of stimulating debate on the subject. Cognisant that institutions that advance financial inclusion are largely financial institutions, the starting point is relating to contemporary corporate governance practice in financial institutions. We know that financial institutions belong to a specific class of corporations whose failure affects society at large because of the financial services they provide. As a result, they are heavily regulated and their corporate governance structures are bound to differ from those of conventional firms. Similarly, we know that financial inclusion institutions are special types of financial institutions with mandates to provide financial services to underserved population segments which equally require special treatment. The scant literature available shows, albeit not conclusive, some evidence of a positive relationship between sound corporate governance and financial inclusion. However, more research on how corporate governance affects different dimensions of financial inclusion is recommended.

The purpose of this article was to assess the impact of financial market liquidity on international capital flows in emerging markets. Specifically, the research investigates the effect of bond market liquidity and stock market liquidity on foreign portfolio investments using data for five emerging African countries, being Egypt, Kenya, Mauritius, Nigeria and South Africa, for the period 2000 to 2020. The data was sourced from the Bloomberg and World Bank (WDI) databases. Panel data analysis (fixed effects model) was undertaken using three different liquidity measures: the effective spread; Amihud’s (2002) illiquidity measure; and market impact as measured by trading volume. Our findings revealed mixed results. It was found that stock market liquidity attracted foreign portfolio investments. Although bond market liquidity, as measured by the volume of trade, promoted foreign portfolio investment, it was different for the effective spread, as the higher the effective spread, the higher the inward FPI flows, and vice versa. Results on the effects of the bond effective spread on FPI show that as long as the bonds are above the investable grade, investors are not discouraged by the cost of trading. Our findings thus confirm that FPI inflows are predisposed on liquid and efficient host country financial markets. Further, the entrance of foreign investors in the host country’s domestic financial markets, leads to the enhancing of liquidity in the local market, thus increasing risk sharing between local and foreign investors.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) migrated to inflation targeting in 2000 and has since embarked on a trajectory of transparency. This has taken the shape of releasing Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) statements other forms of communication. This paper examines SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment between 2000 and 2021 using the Besigye-Segawa’s TextBlob polarity and subjectivity calculator which measures central bank communication tone and sentiment using the Loughran-McDonald dictionary’s word classification to gauge polarity and subjectivity. The study goes on to explore causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on inflation expectation results from the Bureau of Economic (BER) results survey. The systematic analysis shows a causality of SARB’s MPC statements’ tone and sentiment on succeeding BER’s inflation expectations results therein justifying the need for effective communication as SARB’s MPC communications’ polarity and subjectivity ultimately have a causal effect on inflation expectations. therein justifying the need for effective communication. As central bank tone and sentiment studies are only emerging in many emerging and frontier markets, this study lays a foundation for future exploration of effects of central bank communication on the expectations channel.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the suitable arbitrage-free term-structure model that might be able to fit the South African inflation-indexed spot-rate curve. The instrument has relatively less tradability in the market, which then translates into a lack of adequate data for bond valuation/pricing. Pricing deviations might give inflated/deflated projections on the value of government debt; consequently, higher estimated interest cost to be paid. A proper valuation of these instruments is mandatory as they form part of government funding/borrowing and the country’s budgeting processes in the medium term. The performance of newly developed non-linear multifactor models that follows the Nelson-Siegel (1987) framework was compared to the arbitrage-free Vasicek (1977) model and linear parametric models to assess any significant deviations in forecasting the real spot-rate curve over a short period. Models with constant parameters (i.e. linear parametric, cubic splines, Nelson-Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994)) gave a perfect fit, they proved to marginally lose fitting capabilities during periods of higher volatility. Therefore, it could be concluded that the application of either Nelson-Siegel (1987) model or Svensson (1994) model on forecasting South African real spot-rate curve gave a perfect fit. However, for a solid conclusion to be derived, it is imperative to explore the performance of these models over a period of stressed market and economic conditions.

Averting the risk of falling short on the expected profitability of a bank requires the knowledge of the underlying determinants. Knowledge of long-run underlying determinants of profitability assists banks in comprehensive planning. In this backdrop, the paper seeks to identify the long-term fundamental risk factors and their impacts on their profitability. The FM-OLS regression method is employed using annual data on the components of profitability as well as internal and external determinants of profitability of Amalgamated Bank of South Africa (ABSA) bank from 1998 to 2014. The study is particularly importance since bank-specific studies aimed at identifying long-run fundamental factors of profitability has not been given much attention in literature. Evidence from the study indicates that profitability of ABSA is cointegrated with its determinants. It is further observed that, with the exception of inflation and GDP, all the determinants have significant long-term impact on profitability. However, although size has significant impact on net interest margins, its impact on return on equity is insignificant. The results further suggest that capital and stock market capitalization pose risk to aggregate profitability of ABSA. It is therefore recommended that in future, ABSA should resort to optimal equity financing to maximize its expected profitability.

The purpose of the study is aimed at determining the financial socialisation of accounting students at South African universities and the factors that influence financial socialisation. The research used statistical techniques such as the structural equation modelling methodology to identify financial socialisation influencers and regression analysis to analyse associations between financial socialisation and socio-demographic variables among 1582 students. The study's results indicate that financial socialisation agents such as relatives, friends, and social media have little impact on most students' financial decisions. The majority of accounting students are often found to be financially socialised by their immediate family members rather than peers or social media factors. The regression analysis results confirmed this observation, revealing a statistically significant association between the parents' level of education and the students' financial socialisation. This study recommends that financial socialisation can be greatly improved by raising parents' educational levels and instilling financial education in university students' curricula, especially in South Africa.