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Climate change and agricultural transformation are increasingly affecting cocoa production in Sub-Saharan Africa, where smallholder farmers face growing environmental and socioeconomic constraints. This study investigates their effects on cocoa productivity in the Mvila Division of South Cameroon, with particular attention to agricultural modernization, rainfall variability, cooperative membership, fertilizer use, and farm-level characteristics. The study combines qualitative evidence from administrative and policy documents with quantitative data from cocoa farmers and secondary sources, including MINADER, IRAD, FAOSTAT, ICCO, CHIRPS, and the National Cocoa and Coffee Board. Descriptive statistics, correlation analysis, multiple regression, robustness tests, and scenario projections were used to assess productivity across five subdivisions. The results show that cooperative membership, favourable rainfall conditions, farmer education, fertilizer use, and farm size significantly increase cocoa productivity, while ageing plantations reduce yields. Agricultural transformation has also strengthened farmer organizations, extension services, and adoption of improved practices, although mechanization remains constrained by inadequate infrastructure, limited finance, and uneven institutional support. Ebolowa I and Ebolowa II consistently record higher productivity, associated with stronger institutional support and greater adoption of improved practices. The study contributes empirical evidence on the interaction between climate variability and agricultural transformation in cocoa-producing smallholder systems and highlights the importance of combining climate-smart practices, plantation rehabilitation, producer organizations, extension services, and appropriate mechanization to improve productivity and strengthen farmers' resilience in Cameroon.

Drawing on multi-wave panel data from over 5,000 households in the World Bank’s Living Standards Measurement Study–Integrated Surveys on Agriculture microdata across Ethiopia, Tanzania, Uganda, and Malawi, this study investigates how fertilizer subsidies interact with rainfall variability to influence maize productivity among East African smallholders. Using a difference-in-differences framework applied to household-level panel data combined with FAOSTAT indicators, the analysis compares yield responses of subsidy beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries under contrasting rainfall conditions. Results show that fertilizer subsidies significantly raise maize yields in normal rainfall years but provide limited benefits during drought or excessive precipitation, highlighting the conditional effectiveness of input support.  Cross-country differences reveal that program design, especially targeting efficiency and the timing of subsidy delivery, strongly shapes yield outcomes. The findings emphasize the importance of integrating fertilizer support with climate information services, soil health interventions, and adaptive policy mechanisms. This study contributes empirical evidence for designing climate-smart and context-sensitive subsidy systems aimed at enhancing resilience and food security in East Africa.