The Profitability of the Brazilian Banking Sector After the Entry of Financial Technology Firms
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After digital technology started spreading around economies, the hypothesis emerged that smaller but very digitally inclined firms would disrupt existing profitability levels by challenging incumbents’ market power. In this context, the banking sector would be no exception. By testing this hypothesis through a fixed effects model considering quarterly data from 2011 to 2022 for Brazilian banks, we found that from 2016 on there was a change in the behavior of intermediation revenues associated with increased competition in the sector, especially due to the performance of fintechs and digital banks. On the other hand, we observed a reversal of the slope of fee revenues, which became positive, indicating an attempt to compensate for the drop in intermediation revenues, notably an unwanted side effect. The study recommends that policymakers should watch for possible substitution effects while designing banking regulations.