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Stock return modeling is essential for active investors and market players. Value and risk analysis benefit from these simulations. Despite extensive study on stock price modeling, little is understood about how internal and external shocks affect stock market returns. Therefore, this study sought to fill this gap. A sample of five international financial markets from December 1, 2007, to June 30, 2009 and January 1, 2020 to December 31, 2021, the 2007-2008 financial crisis and most recent COVID-19 pandemic, were tested using a Cramer-von Mises and Watson test. Research showed that internal market volatility is more damaging than external shocks. During financial instability driven by external shocks, portfolio managers should expect two to three standard deviations of volatility. However, financial system shocks should cause a greater range of volatility. The authors believe this is the first study to predict stock market returns in reaction to regulatory announcements from market shocks.

This paper aims to analyze cryptocurrency volatility by examining the effect of Gold, Dollar Index, and Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) as independent variables and on Bitcoin and Ethereum as dependent variables. The cryptocurrency objects in this study are Bitcoin and Ethereum, which have the largest market capitalization. The data in this study used the period January 1, 2018, to December 31, 2021. This study used GARCH analysis. This study's results indicate that Bitcoin's volatility is influenced by the price of Bitcoin itself, gold, and the stock exchange index, and Ethereum and the stock exchange index influence Ethereum. This shows that the cryptocurrency market is inefficient as the prices are also affected by past prices.

Modelling volatility using asset price returns has always been at the forefront of financial economics and option pricing. Observing the conditional variance properties in these asset returns, can be very useful for trend analysis and volatility predictions which are ever needed for trading, portfolio management and financial decision making. The aim of the study was to model and forecast volatility in stock markets. Six financial markets namely the Nasdaq, JSE, the DAX, the CAC 40 and the Nikkei 225 were used as samples with a sampling frame from January 29, 2018 to January 29, 2023. The findings of this study revealed that the variance for all the financial markets under consideration changes significantly with the passage of time. Also, volatility in the JSE, DAX & CAC 40 display fat tail distributions and it is expected to move by three standard deviations. Accordingly, volatility will persist in the Nasdaq, DAX and CAC 40 at an increasing rate but will persist at a decreasing rate in the JSE and Nikkei 225. Considering the peril involved in stock market investing, this study makes a notable contribution to estimating market volatility which is an integral component of asset pricing. With this knowledge, analyst and market traders will have a better understanding of the error distribution in stock markets which will assist in specifying predictive asset prices.

Crude oil is, without a doubt, one of the most significant commodities in the modern world. The highly contagious coronavirus, the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and not to mention the unusual turn of events worldwide have all significantly impacted crude oil prices. Since oil is required for all critical economic activities, such as production and transportation, a forecast for crude oil prices is essential. Using a range of GARCH models at such an intense time, this study attempted to close this gap by forecasting crude oil volatility. To forecast the returns of Brent crude oil prices from January 2002 to February 2022, this study uses a family of GARCH models. In the respective family of models, GJRGARCH (1,1) was the most effective in predicting the volatility of crude oil prices. The GJRGARCH model was chosen since it had a higher likelihood value and a lower information criteria value. A diagnostic check was done to evaluate the produced model further to ensure that the proposed model was good enough for forecasting crude oil volatility. The study suggests employing the GJRGARCH technique to predict future fluctuations in exceptional circumstances.