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This paper uses politico-social capital theorisation of the relationship between public trust and democracy in order to demonstrate the interdependence of the African National Congress’ (ANC’s) declining electoral fortunes and the increasing public trust deficits in South Africa’s state, constitutional democracy and political institutions. As desktop-based research, the paper conducts literature survey to distils the relationship between public trust, as social capital, in institutions of society, and electoral performance and formation of societal leadership vacuum, within complexities of the political-economy and political culture and system such as those entrenched in South Africa under the ANC’s 28-year rule. The paper analyses statistical evidence from Afrobarometer’s 2022 survey about South Africans’ public trust in state and political institutions from 2006 to 2021, as well as national, provincial and local government election results from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) from 1994 to 2019, to corroborate its theoretical framing. It makes three findings, thus: there is a direct relationship between the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes and the erosion of public trust in institutions of society; the ANC’s 28-years of state governance has created an ominous societal leadership vacuum, setting South Africa’s democracy on the precipice of civil strife; and, the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes will persist into the foreseeable future because public trust is hard to regain and sustain once eroded.

This paper uses politico-social capital theorisation of the relationship between public trust and democracy in order to demonstrate the interdependence of the African National Congress’ (ANC’s) declining electoral fortunes and the increasing public trust deficits in South Africa’s state, constitutional democracy and political institutions. As desktop-based research, the paper conducts literature survey to distils the relationship between public trust, as social capital, in institutions of society, and electoral performance and formation of societal leadership vacuum, within complexities of the political-economy and political culture and system such as those entrenched in South Africa under the ANC’s 28-year rule. The paper analyses statistical evidence from Afrobarometer’s 2022 survey about South Africans’ public trust in state and political institutions from 2006 to 2021, as well as national, provincial and local government election results from the Independent Electoral Commission of South Africa (IEC) from 1994 to 2019, to corroborate its theoretical framing. It makes three findings, thus: there is a direct relationship between the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes and the erosion of public trust in institutions of society; the ANC’s 28-years of state governance has created an ominous societal leadership vacuum, setting South Africa’s democracy on the precipice of civil strife; and, the ANC’s declining electoral fortunes will persist into the foreseeable future because public trust is hard to regain and sustain once eroded.