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This study examines the effects of global tariff adjustments on the susceptibility of South African manufacturing exports from 2020 to 2025. The escalation of protectionism and uncertainty in trade policy has progressively impacted export performance in emerging manufacturing economies. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of tariff changes on export volume, sector composition, and firm-level adaptation techniques in South Africa's manufacturing sector.A quantitative methodology was utilised, employing secondary data from international trade and macroeconomic databases, encompassing sector-specific export statistics, tariff exposure metrics, exchange rate controls, and global demand variables. Descriptive statistical analysis and multivariate regression modelling were employed to investigate the correlation between tariff exposure and export performance in principal industrial sectors. The results indicate that tariff adjustments had a statistically significant adverse effect on the growth of industrial exports. A one-percent increase in tariff exposure correlated with an estimated 0.5–0.6 percent decline in export growth within tariff-sensitive sectors. The automotive and textile industries displayed the greatest susceptibility, whereas processed manufacturing exports showed enhanced resilience, possibly attributable to regional market diversification. company-level adaptation options, including regional market growth and investments in automation, alleviated export losses but demonstrated inconsistent success across different sectors and company sizes. This study enhances the trade resilience literature by offering empirical evidence that connects global tariff changes to sector-specific export susceptibility in a middle-income manufacturing economy. The results highlight the significance of industry enhancement, regional trade integration, and export diversification in reducing vulnerability to external trade disturbances. The findings provide significant insights for industrial and trade policies intended to improve South Africa's long-term manufacturing export competitiveness in the context of persistent global trade volatility.

Cross-border trade within the Economic Community of West African States remains fundamental to regional food distribution, small-scale commerce, and household livelihoods. Yet traders continue to confront persistent non-tariff barriers, administrative delays, and governance weaknesses that raise the cost of moving goods across borders. This paper investigates how informal governance, corruption pressures, and institutional trust shape trade frictions, drawing on UN Comtrade bilateral flows, the Africa Trade Observatory price data, and Afrobarometer perceptions of institutional performance. Using price-gap estimation and a structural gravity framework, the analysis measures how governance quality influences trade costs and distortions in reported bilateral flows. The findings reveal consistent price gaps between official and actual market values for cereals, livestock, and processed foods, suggesting hidden costs linked to bribe payments and informal checkpoint controls. Gravity results indicate that countries with weak institutional trust experience significantly lower formal trade reporting but higher estimated informal flows. These results align with evidence from Afreximbank, ECDPM, FAO, and the African Development Bank on the persistence of informal corridors as adaptive responses to border inefficiencies. The paper concludes with recommendations for coordinated reforms on transparency, digital border systems, and joint border posts to reduce hidden costs and improve regional integration.

Intra-SADC trade has not met the target that was set by the African Continental Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) of achieving 22% by the year 2022 due to a myriad of various trade-related challenges. This present study aims to compare the results of using a Poisson Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML) with Random Effects (RE), Fixed Effects (FE), and an Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) model on a balanced panel of select eight Southern African Development Community (SADC) members that trade with South Africa over the period 2010-2022. The paper empirically examines how South Africa’s overlapping Regional Economic Community (REC) membership affects bilateral trade. Also, the examination of how the impact of distance between South Africa and its trading partners impacts bilateral trade. The study findings are that PPML provides more robust results than other estimation techniques in estimating the gravity model for a balanced micro panel. From the PPML results, distance has a significant negative impact at a 5% level on bilateral exports from South Africa which implies that SADC countries that are relatively far in terms of distance from South Africa and landlocked tend to experience a relative fall in exports from South Africa.  However, multiple REC membership has a positive and significant impact of 1% level of significance on bilateral trade contrary to the negative relationship that was expected. The study recommends the speedy conclusion of outstanding AfCFTA issues for member states to effectively benefit from the economies that economic geography presents.

This study examines the effects of global tariff adjustments on the susceptibility of South African manufacturing exports from 2020 to 2025. The escalation of protectionism and uncertainty in trade policy has progressively impacted export performance in emerging manufacturing economies. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of tariff changes on export volume, sector composition, and firm-level adaptation techniques in South Africa's manufacturing sector.A quantitative methodology was utilised, employing secondary data from international trade and macroeconomic databases, encompassing sector-specific export statistics, tariff exposure metrics, exchange rate controls, and global demand variables. Descriptive statistical analysis and multivariate regression modelling were employed to investigate the correlation between tariff exposure and export performance in principal industrial sectors. The results indicate that tariff adjustments had a statistically significant adverse effect on the growth of industrial exports. A one-percent increase in tariff exposure correlated with an estimated 0.5–0.6 percent decline in export growth within tariff-sensitive sectors. The automotive and textile industries displayed the greatest susceptibility, whereas processed manufacturing exports showed enhanced resilience, possibly attributable to regional market diversification. company-level adaptation options, including regional market growth and investments in automation, alleviated export losses but demonstrated inconsistent success across different sectors and company sizes. This study enhances the trade resilience literature by offering empirical evidence that connects global tariff changes to sector-specific export susceptibility in a middle-income manufacturing economy. The results highlight the significance of industry enhancement, regional trade integration, and export diversification in reducing vulnerability to external trade disturbances. The findings provide significant insights for industrial and trade policies intended to improve South Africa's long-term manufacturing export competitiveness in the context of persistent global trade volatility.

Cross-border trade within the Economic Community of West African States remains fundamental to regional food distribution, small-scale commerce, and household livelihoods. Yet traders continue to confront persistent non-tariff barriers, administrative delays, and governance weaknesses that raise the cost of moving goods across borders. This paper investigates how informal governance, corruption pressures, and institutional trust shape trade frictions, drawing on UN Comtrade bilateral flows, the Africa Trade Observatory price data, and Afrobarometer perceptions of institutional performance. Using price-gap estimation and a structural gravity framework, the analysis measures how governance quality influences trade costs and distortions in reported bilateral flows. The findings reveal consistent price gaps between official and actual market values for cereals, livestock, and processed foods, suggesting hidden costs linked to bribe payments and informal checkpoint controls. Gravity results indicate that countries with weak institutional trust experience significantly lower formal trade reporting but higher estimated informal flows. These results align with evidence from Afreximbank, ECDPM, FAO, and the African Development Bank on the persistence of informal corridors as adaptive responses to border inefficiencies. The paper concludes with recommendations for coordinated reforms on transparency, digital border systems, and joint border posts to reduce hidden costs and improve regional integration.

Intra-SADC trade has not met the target that was set by the African Continental Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) of achieving 22% by the year 2022 due to a myriad of various trade-related challenges. This present study aims to compare the results of using a Poisson Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML) with Random Effects (RE), Fixed Effects (FE), and an Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) model on a balanced panel of select eight Southern African Development Community (SADC) members that trade with South Africa over the period 2010-2022. The paper empirically examines how South Africa’s overlapping Regional Economic Community (REC) membership affects bilateral trade. Also, the examination of how the impact of distance between South Africa and its trading partners impacts bilateral trade. The study findings are that PPML provides more robust results than other estimation techniques in estimating the gravity model for a balanced micro panel. From the PPML results, distance has a significant negative impact at a 5% level on bilateral exports from South Africa which implies that SADC countries that are relatively far in terms of distance from South Africa and landlocked tend to experience a relative fall in exports from South Africa.  However, multiple REC membership has a positive and significant impact of 1% level of significance on bilateral trade contrary to the negative relationship that was expected. The study recommends the speedy conclusion of outstanding AfCFTA issues for member states to effectively benefit from the economies that economic geography presents.