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The eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, has experienced increased drought frequency and intensity due to climate change and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study assesses and forecasts meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and ARIMA/SARIMA models, analyzing climate data from 1990 to 2022. Results reveal significant drought intensification, with extreme events in 2019 (central region, SPEI-6 = -3.42) and 2020 (northern region, SPI-3 = -8.15). SARIMA models outperformed ARIMA in forecasting accuracy, emphasizing the role of seasonality. Urbanization and land-use changes exacerbate central region droughts, while northern agricultural reliance highlights the need for water storage. Recommendations include drought-resistant crops, enhanced irrigation, and rainwater harvesting to bolster resilience. These findings inform localized drought management and contribute to global climate adaptation strategies.

Climate change is characterised by long-term changes in typical weather patterns, which can span from several decades to millions of years. Variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors are among the variables often used to quantify or qualify climate change. Most scholars recognize droughts and floods as two prominent consequences of climate change. Hence, the utilisation of climate change indicators such as periods of drought and heavy rainfall is of utmost importance. U. This study aimed at assessing patterns of dry and wet spell implications in the Central and Northern regions of eThekwini district municipality using historical climate data (1990–2022) on precipitation and temperatures (maximum and minimum) to determine the frequency, intensity, and duration of dry spells and wet spells. The findings revealed that the Central Region had almost double the rainfall compared to the Northern Region, which is particularly concerning since elevated levels of precipitation during a period of heightened moisture can result in the occurrence of floods, landslides, and an augmented supply of water. Frequent dry spells, indicative of severe drought, primarily affect the Northern region, posing a challenge to communities through water scarcity, agricultural losses, and hunger. Citizens of these areas are projected to be more vulnerable to extreme weather events; therefore, the need for a profound understanding of dry and wet spells and their socio-economic ramifications is evident. As communities worldwide grapple with the consequences of these climatic fluctuations, academic inquiry is essential to providing guidance for effective policy formulation, disaster management, and sustainable development.

The eThekwini Municipality, South Africa, has experienced increased drought frequency and intensity due to climate change and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This study assesses and forecasts meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), and ARIMA/SARIMA models, analyzing climate data from 1990 to 2022. Results reveal significant drought intensification, with extreme events in 2019 (central region, SPEI-6 = -3.42) and 2020 (northern region, SPI-3 = -8.15). SARIMA models outperformed ARIMA in forecasting accuracy, emphasizing the role of seasonality. Urbanization and land-use changes exacerbate central region droughts, while northern agricultural reliance highlights the need for water storage. Recommendations include drought-resistant crops, enhanced irrigation, and rainwater harvesting to bolster resilience. These findings inform localized drought management and contribute to global climate adaptation strategies.

Climate change is characterised by long-term changes in typical weather patterns, which can span from several decades to millions of years. Variations in temperature, precipitation, and other climatic factors are among the variables often used to quantify or qualify climate change. Most scholars recognize droughts and floods as two prominent consequences of climate change. Hence, the utilisation of climate change indicators such as periods of drought and heavy rainfall is of utmost importance. U. This study aimed at assessing patterns of dry and wet spell implications in the Central and Northern regions of eThekwini district municipality using historical climate data (1990–2022) on precipitation and temperatures (maximum and minimum) to determine the frequency, intensity, and duration of dry spells and wet spells. The findings revealed that the Central Region had almost double the rainfall compared to the Northern Region, which is particularly concerning since elevated levels of precipitation during a period of heightened moisture can result in the occurrence of floods, landslides, and an augmented supply of water. Frequent dry spells, indicative of severe drought, primarily affect the Northern region, posing a challenge to communities through water scarcity, agricultural losses, and hunger. Citizens of these areas are projected to be more vulnerable to extreme weather events; therefore, the need for a profound understanding of dry and wet spells and their socio-economic ramifications is evident. As communities worldwide grapple with the consequences of these climatic fluctuations, academic inquiry is essential to providing guidance for effective policy formulation, disaster management, and sustainable development.