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The Central Sahel, which includes Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso, faces escalating violence driven by growing land pressure, environmental stress, and uneven institutional capacity. This study investigates how land use change influences conflict intensity by integrating geo referenced conflict data from ACLED, governance indicators from V Dem, and environmental and land use variables from PRIO GRID. Using a spatial difference in differences model applied to a 0.5 degree grid cell dataset, the analysis quantifies how cropland expansion, pasture contraction, and climate related shocks affect violent events under different levels of local governance quality. The results show that land use pressure significantly increases conflict intensity, but the magnitude of this effect depends strongly on institutional strength. Conflict levels rise by as much as 45 percent in weak governance areas following comparable land changes, while areas with stronger local institutions experience considerably lower escalation risks. Spatial spillover patterns further reveal that violence diffuses across local and national boundaries, especially along pastoral mobility routes and border zones. The study contributes new empirical evidence on the interaction between land dynamics and governance in shaping conflict and highlights the importance of strengthening local institutions, safeguarding mobility systems, and integrating land governance into regional peacebuilding strategies. The findings align with the objectives of Sustainable Development Goal 16 focused on peace, justice, and strong institutions.

It is a daunting task to restore dispossessed land after armed conflicts. Burundi is stuck in this quagmire following years of violent conflicts. Although land restitution is meant to pacify nationals, this depends on the prevailing political, economic, and social circumstances. This study explores these circumstances focused on the armed conflict legacies in Burundi and the disparities between those people who stayed put when violent conflict erupted and displaced people who got back home. The study reveals that in post-Burundi conflict, redressing land issues could flop if governance challenges, trust, and shifting dynamics of politics are inadequately dealt with.