Explore publications.

This study examines the magnitude, timing, and persistence of export gains from Turkey’s regional trade agreements (RTAs), addressing why previous studies found null effects despite extensive preferential liberalization. A structural gravity framework analyzes Turkey’s bilateral exports to over 160 partners (1996–2020) using PPML estimation with country-pair fixed effects. Dynamic RTA indicators capture anticipation and phased-in effects over twelve years, while time-varying border coefficients isolate policy effects from globalization trends. RTAs generate large, persistent export gains that accumulate gradually rather than immediately. Cumulative effects reach 815 percent over twelve years without globalization controls, or 102 percent when secular trends are absorbed, both of which are economically substantial. The absence of anticipation effects validates causal interpretation. Trade agreements function as medium- to long-term integration instruments. Policy continuity and complementary domestic reforms amplify RTA benefits. This study provides the first comprehensive dynamic assessment of Turkey’s RTA effects within a structural gravity framework, resolving puzzling null findings from earlier specifications and establishing bounds on policy-attributable export gains.

The findings underscore the significance of institutional stability and macro-financial predictability in maintaining export performance in volatile emerging economies. Enhancing regulatory quality, bolstering macro-financial stability, and augmenting enterprises' capacity to manage risk will facilitate more robust export results. Incorporating institutional and financial frictions directly into gravity models offers a more accurate framework for policy assessment. This research employs a structural gravity model, estimated using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood, to analyse Turkey's bilateral export flows to 164 partner nations from 1996 to 2020. Political stability and exchange rate volatility are integrated as time-varying institutional and financial frictions. Indices of economic scale, geographical distance, and remoteness are incorporated to maintain alignment with structural gravity theory. The political stability of destination nations is a crucial positive factor influencing Turkish exports and signifies the existence of a governance premium. Exchange rate fluctuation exerts a sustained adverse impact, diminishing the anticipated advantages of nominal depreciation. Visual data indicates two consistent behavioural tendencies. Exporters are increasingly venturing into politically risky countries; yet, long-term export growth is constrained by institutional inertia and robust network dependencies. The findings indicate that institutional reliability and macro-financial predictability are crucial for maintaining export performance in volatile emerging economies. Enhanced regulatory quality, greater macro-financial stability, and superior firm-level risk management are essential for achieving more resilient export outcomes. Incorporating institutional and financial frictions directly into gravity models offers a more accurate framework for comprehending trade dynamics and formulating effective policies.