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This study aims to determine the effect of six-factor (market return, firm size, value, profitability, investment, human capital) on excess return in companies with shares listed in LQ45 for the 2015-2019 period. The population of this study consists of 45 LQ45 companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). The purposive sampling method is the sample selection method that is used in this study. As a result, it shows that there are 26 companies that fit the criteria and taken as samples. Furthermore, the data analysis method that is used in this study is the panel data regression model. Based on the results of this study, it is showed that partially, market return (X1), firm size (X2), profitability (X4), and investment (X5) have a significant positive effect on the excess return of companies listed in LQ45 for the 2015-2019 period. Whereas, value (X3) and human capital (X6) do not have a significant effect on the excess return of companies listed in LQ45 for the 2015-2019 period partially. Another result also shows that simultaneously or as a whole, six-factors (market return, firm size, value, profitability, investment, human capital) have a significant effect on the excess return of companies listed in LQ45 for the 2015-2019 period.

A recurring theme in the literature and discussion of stock market analysis is the concept of the January effect which essentially implies buy in December and sell in January. The January effect is based on the perceived seasonality trend where short term investors hope to take advantage of the arbitrage opportunity between December and January. However, this perceived anomaly continues is seen as a myth and has been strongly rejected by many market participants in the current dispensation. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the January effect in the Nikkei 225, JSE, CAC 40, DAX, and the NASDAQ Index from February 2019 to February 2024. A F-test statistics was used to explore the phenomenon. The findings indicated that there is no significant difference between the realised returns in January and those of the other month for the most recent five years. This led to the conclusion that, while the January effect may have been observed, it is no longer evident in financial markets, hence market participants should avoid using this type of arbitrage approach because it may result in massive losses

The Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) allows for a re-evaluation of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns, acknowledging that this relationship is time-varying and asymmetrical. This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) sector returns under varying market conditions from January 2008 to December 2024. Using a Markov regime-switching model, the findings show that macroeconomic effects on sectoral returns are regime-dependent and time-sensitive. In bullish markets, inflation growth has a significant negative impact on Industrial sector returns, but no significant effect during bearish regimes. For the Financial sector, inflation and money supply growth negatively affect returns, while the real effective exchange rate growth has a positive impact. In the Resource sector, all macroeconomic variables significantly influence returns during bearish conditions, with inflation growth showing a notable negative effect. Overall, JSE sector returns exhibit bull and bear market dynamics, and the influence of macroeconomic variables is neither uniform nor static aligning with the AMH framework.

The dynamics of investing in stock markets have changed considerably over the past twenty years. The value and growth investing concept has drawn much attention and continues to dominate portfolio management. Factor investing is an approach that aims at quantifying particular characteristics through matrixes of quality, value, momentum, and growth to improve the returns of a portfolio. Although the three-factor style of investing has gained widespread acceptance, the five-factor continues to be a source of disagreement among academics and industry practitioners. This study aimed to review the merits of five-factor investing critically. A critical literature review was used to review prior literature. The narratives from the literature reveal that the five-factor investing style will result in multiple sources of expected return. Hence, using five factors in portfolio formation has merits and will significantly improve the returns and most likely outperform the market portfolio. Factor premiums have proven to be drivers of asset return. Therefore, market participants and investment managers can intentionally assume additional exposures to deliver superior risk-adjusted returns compared to the market with the five-factor investing style. According to the author's knowledge, this is the first study to objectively analyze the literature on five-factor investing and propose that active managers can earn positive alphas on a risk-adjusted basis through factor exposures.

Studies in behavioral finance have shown that human behavior often diverges from the rationality assumed by economists, as their decisions can occasionally be swayed by their emotional and psychological states. Given this concern, the study examines psychological factors influencing individual decision-making in the South African financial market. A structured questionnaire was used in collecting data from 414 participants who are individual investors actively involved in trading in the Johannesburg stock exchange market with the application of the random sampling method. The main objective of this study is to explore the psychological variables or biases that determine the investment decision-making of individual investors. Furthermore, this paper investigates psychological factors such as Anchoring, Herding, Overconfidence and Representative biases in investment decision-making. Findings revealed that all the variables, overconfidence, herding, anchoring and representative heuristics have a relationship with each other but the only variable that influences the individual investment decision is the representative heuristic while less consideration is given to another variable. The results of this study would help financial advisors understand the high importance of psychological factors and help them integrate behavioral insights into investment strategies. This will in turn help them provide better services to their clients. It will also help individual investors to acknowledge and understand the psychological factors influencing investment decisions and how to take note of them to make better decisions. Policymakers can consider the implications of psychological biases on market stability.

Market participants usually seek exposure to global beta which are best achieved usually through large capitalization equities where higher idiosyncratic risk represents a potential source of alpha. This study empirically explored the persistence and drivers of idiosyncratic risk across the S&P 500, CAC 40, FTSE 100, DAX, and Nikkei 225 for a period of 20 years (2004 – 2024). Utilizing a quantitative risk decomposition framework, the analysis revealed a stark dichotomy where the S&P 500 exhibits minimal idiosyncratic risk, functioning as a proxy for global systematic factors. The Nikkei 225 was dominated by idiosyncratic risk which can be attributed to the unique domestic monetary policy. The European counterparts occupied a middle ground, with idiosyncratic risk amplified by sectoral concentrations. The correlation analysis further suggested a deep regional integration within the European markets and a diversification potential with the Japanese equity market. The findings challenged the notion that globalization has harmonized global financial market returns. These findings also demonstrates that idiosyncratic risk remains a significant and potentially compensable component of the concept of international investing, necessitating a strategic shift towards factor aware asset allocation.

Traditional asset pricing models assume rational investors and informational efficiency. However, persistent anomalies, and recurrent financial crises challenge these assumptions. This study synthesizes findings from leading international research to evaluate how cognitive biases shape asset prices and provides a comprehensive review and synthesis of behavioral asset pricing in international financial markets over a period from 2004 to 2024. Evidence from the extensive stock market data, cross-market behavioral heterogeneity and survey-based risk premia consistently demonstrates that behavioral effects are time-varying and regime-dependent. The findings indicate that behavioral heterogeneity intensifies during boom and bubble periods, diminishes during crashes, and generates predictable patterns in returns across asset classes and countries. Overall, the study re-iterates support for a dynamic behavioral asset pricing framework that integrates psychological factors into international financial market analysis.

This research investigates how the overall mood of investors influences the profits of the major commercial banks traded on the JSE. Although behavioural factors are increasingly acknowledged in financial markets, there is very little empirical evidence that investor sentiment has any impact on the South African banking sector, despite this sector being the main driver of financial stability and economic growth. This study investigated whether investor sentiment has a significant impact on bank stock returns in both the short and long term. The research period ranged from September 2008 to March 2025 and used monthly return data. The paper implements the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to illustrate immediate and long-term relationships between sentiment, macroeconomic variables, and bank performance. The findings demonstrate that investor sentiment is one of the significant factors influencing bank stock returns, but the effect varies between different banks. Sentiment, on average, tends to have a negative effect on the majority of banks in the long run, which means that in times of extreme optimistimism  are followed by those of overvaluation and subsequent correction. However, one bank revealed a positive return-sentiment relationship which suggests that characteristics unique to a specific bank can have a moderating effect on behavioural factors. The short-run outcomes indicate that bank stock returns are very reactive to changes in sentiment and macroeconomic shocks and at the same time, diagnostic tests for model reliability support these results. The paper contributes to behavioural finance literature by delivering fresh data derived from an emerging market and providing an answer to the problem of bank-level disaggregated analysis that has been neglected. In addition to the theoretical contributions, the results can be turned into actionable insights by investors, policymakers, and portfolio managers who will be reminded of the importance of including sentiment indicators in their bank performance assessment and risk management activities in the South African financial sector.

The Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) is considered a cornerstone of the South African economy, with its size-based indices serving as critical benchmarks for passive investment and portfolio construction. Although macroeconomic variables affect stock returns, the existing literature has primarily relied on linear models which yield heterogeneous results and do not allow for the dynamic and changing structure of financial markets. Consequently, this study investigates the nonlinear, regime-dependent effects of key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, money supply, short- and long-term interest rates, GDP, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) on the returns of the JSE Fledgling, Small-Cap, and Mid-Cap indices. Utilizing monthly data from 2002 to 2024, the study employs a two-state Markov Regime-Switching which allows the study to endogenously address the changes in bull and bear market regimes. The most pressing finding is that the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) is a consistently positive driver of returns across all market conditions, while the influences of other variables, such as interest rates and GDP growth, are highly dependent on the market regime (bull or bear) and the specific index size. Finally, these findings lead us to conclude that the relationship between macroeconomic fundamentals and stock returns is not a constant phenomenon but rather is fundamentally dependent on the regime, lending strong support for the Adaptive Market Hypothesis. This insight is significant for investors and portfolio managers, underscoring the necessity of adaptive, regime-sensitive strategies for effective risk management and portfolio allocation on the JSE.

The Adaptive Market Hypothesis (AMH) allows for a re-evaluation of the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock market returns, acknowledging that this relationship is time-varying and asymmetrical. This study investigates the impact of macroeconomic factors on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) sector returns under varying market conditions from January 2008 to December 2024. Using a Markov regime-switching model, the findings show that macroeconomic effects on sectoral returns are regime-dependent and time-sensitive. In bullish markets, inflation growth has a significant negative impact on Industrial sector returns, but no significant effect during bearish regimes. For the Financial sector, inflation and money supply growth negatively affect returns, while the real effective exchange rate growth has a positive impact. In the Resource sector, all macroeconomic variables significantly influence returns during bearish conditions, with inflation growth showing a notable negative effect. Overall, JSE sector returns exhibit bull and bear market dynamics, and the influence of macroeconomic variables is neither uniform nor static aligning with the AMH framework.