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This study examines the magnitude, timing, and persistence of export gains from Turkey’s regional trade agreements (RTAs), addressing why previous studies found null effects despite extensive preferential liberalization. A structural gravity framework analyzes Turkey’s bilateral exports to over 160 partners (1996–2020) using PPML estimation with country-pair fixed effects. Dynamic RTA indicators capture anticipation and phased-in effects over twelve years, while time-varying border coefficients isolate policy effects from globalization trends. RTAs generate large, persistent export gains that accumulate gradually rather than immediately. Cumulative effects reach 815 percent over twelve years without globalization controls, or 102 percent when secular trends are absorbed, both of which are economically substantial. The absence of anticipation effects validates causal interpretation. Trade agreements function as medium- to long-term integration instruments. Policy continuity and complementary domestic reforms amplify RTA benefits. This study provides the first comprehensive dynamic assessment of Turkey’s RTA effects within a structural gravity framework, resolving puzzling null findings from earlier specifications and establishing bounds on policy-attributable export gains.

This study examines the effects of global tariff adjustments on the susceptibility of South African manufacturing exports from 2020 to 2025. The escalation of protectionism and uncertainty in trade policy has progressively impacted export performance in emerging manufacturing economies. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of tariff changes on export volume, sector composition, and firm-level adaptation techniques in South Africa's manufacturing sector.A quantitative methodology was utilised, employing secondary data from international trade and macroeconomic databases, encompassing sector-specific export statistics, tariff exposure metrics, exchange rate controls, and global demand variables. Descriptive statistical analysis and multivariate regression modelling were employed to investigate the correlation between tariff exposure and export performance in principal industrial sectors. The results indicate that tariff adjustments had a statistically significant adverse effect on the growth of industrial exports. A one-percent increase in tariff exposure correlated with an estimated 0.5–0.6 percent decline in export growth within tariff-sensitive sectors. The automotive and textile industries displayed the greatest susceptibility, whereas processed manufacturing exports showed enhanced resilience, possibly attributable to regional market diversification. company-level adaptation options, including regional market growth and investments in automation, alleviated export losses but demonstrated inconsistent success across different sectors and company sizes. This study enhances the trade resilience literature by offering empirical evidence that connects global tariff changes to sector-specific export susceptibility in a middle-income manufacturing economy. The results highlight the significance of industry enhancement, regional trade integration, and export diversification in reducing vulnerability to external trade disturbances. The findings provide significant insights for industrial and trade policies intended to improve South Africa's long-term manufacturing export competitiveness in the context of persistent global trade volatility.

The study aims to examine the key drivers and financing mechanisms of infrastructure development in Africa and their impact on trade facilitation and regional economic integration. It focuses on understanding the political, economic, and institutional factors shaping sustainable infrastructure growth and trade expansion across the continent. The African continent engages in relatively limited intra-continental trade, with intra-African trade consistently averaging between 12% and 15%. At a broader level, trade growth is widely regarded as a key driver of economic development, employment generation, and poverty reduction. However, the persistent low levels of trade among African countries coupled with high unemployment and widespread poverty have sparked discussions around the urgent need to strengthen both intra-regional and continental trade. In pursuit of regional integration, various regional economic communities were established, including the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Despite these efforts, concerns persist regarding weak economic infrastructure across several regions of the continent, including within the SADC bloc. Inadequate infrastructure has been identified as a major impediment to enhancing intra-African trade. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to empirically examine the relationship between economic infrastructure and intra-regional trade within the SADC region. The analysis employs panel data covering all 15 SADC member states, utilizing datasets from the SADC Secretariat and the World Bank. Applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique, the findings indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between infrastructure development and intra-SADC exports.

This paper analyses the factors influencing South Africa's net trade in communications, computer, and technology-related commodities with a linear regression econometric methodology from 2015 to 2024. Utilising Structuralist Trade Theory, Endogenous Growth Theory, and Digital Trade Theory, the study assesses the impact of high-technology exports and ICT-related service trade on the nation's net trade in goods within the Balance of Payments framework. The model utilises annual time-series data, integrating high-technology exports quantified as a proportion of manufactured exports and in absolute monetary terms, in conjunction with communications and computer service imports and exports. The empirical findings indicate that increases in the absolute value of high-technology exports and ICT service exports positively influence net trade performance, whereas ICT service imports have a detrimental effect. The decreasing proportion of high-technology exports in manufacturing indicates ongoing fundamental deficiencies in industrial advancement. The findings suggest that South Africa's trade sustainability relies on enhancing innovation-driven exports and diminishing dependence on imported digital services. The research offers pertinent insights for export diversification, digital industrial advancement, and sustained trade competitiveness in emerging economies.

The findings underscore the significance of institutional stability and macro-financial predictability in maintaining export performance in volatile emerging economies. Enhancing regulatory quality, bolstering macro-financial stability, and augmenting enterprises' capacity to manage risk will facilitate more robust export results. Incorporating institutional and financial frictions directly into gravity models offers a more accurate framework for policy assessment. This research employs a structural gravity model, estimated using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood, to analyse Turkey's bilateral export flows to 164 partner nations from 1996 to 2020. Political stability and exchange rate volatility are integrated as time-varying institutional and financial frictions. Indices of economic scale, geographical distance, and remoteness are incorporated to maintain alignment with structural gravity theory. The political stability of destination nations is a crucial positive factor influencing Turkish exports and signifies the existence of a governance premium. Exchange rate fluctuation exerts a sustained adverse impact, diminishing the anticipated advantages of nominal depreciation. Visual data indicates two consistent behavioural tendencies. Exporters are increasingly venturing into politically risky countries; yet, long-term export growth is constrained by institutional inertia and robust network dependencies. The findings indicate that institutional reliability and macro-financial predictability are crucial for maintaining export performance in volatile emerging economies. Enhanced regulatory quality, greater macro-financial stability, and superior firm-level risk management are essential for achieving more resilient export outcomes. Incorporating institutional and financial frictions directly into gravity models offers a more accurate framework for comprehending trade dynamics and formulating effective policies.

Cross-border trade within the Economic Community of West African States remains fundamental to regional food distribution, small-scale commerce, and household livelihoods. Yet traders continue to confront persistent non-tariff barriers, administrative delays, and governance weaknesses that raise the cost of moving goods across borders. This paper investigates how informal governance, corruption pressures, and institutional trust shape trade frictions, drawing on UN Comtrade bilateral flows, the Africa Trade Observatory price data, and Afrobarometer perceptions of institutional performance. Using price-gap estimation and a structural gravity framework, the analysis measures how governance quality influences trade costs and distortions in reported bilateral flows. The findings reveal consistent price gaps between official and actual market values for cereals, livestock, and processed foods, suggesting hidden costs linked to bribe payments and informal checkpoint controls. Gravity results indicate that countries with weak institutional trust experience significantly lower formal trade reporting but higher estimated informal flows. These results align with evidence from Afreximbank, ECDPM, FAO, and the African Development Bank on the persistence of informal corridors as adaptive responses to border inefficiencies. The paper concludes with recommendations for coordinated reforms on transparency, digital border systems, and joint border posts to reduce hidden costs and improve regional integration.

This study investigates the contribution of the Southern African Development Community's (SADC) Rules of Origin (RoO) to the growth and survival of manufacturing industries in Zimbabwe. The study adopted a qualitative approach and used purposive sampling to select the interviewees. Data obtained from interviews and through documentary review was thematically analysed. The study found that several critical challenges are hindering the effective utilisation of RoO. Foremost among these is a pervasive lack of knowledge and understanding of RoO requirements across all sectors of the Zimbabwean economy. This knowledge gap is compounded by cumbersome administrative and accounting requirements necessary to meet origin criteria, creating significant compliance burdens for manufacturers. Additionally, the poor economic performance of Zimbabwe has negatively impacted the ability of industries to leverage the benefits of SADC RoO, further impeding their competitiveness within the SADC Free Trade Area (FTA). The study recommended comprehensive awareness and training programmes to educate stakeholders on RoO, simplification of administrative processes to reduce compliance costs, and broader economic reforms to improve the overall business environment. Furthermore, it advocates for the establishment of support services to assist industries in navigating RoO requirements, and the enhancement of regional cooperation to facilitate smoother trade flows. .

Trade liberalization is a widely accepted policy for fostering economic growth, particularly in developing countries. Advocates argue that open economies, through increased competition, specialization, and access to global markets, outperform closed economies. However, the short-term effects on developing economies like Nigeria remain debated, especially within the manufacturing sector. Nigeria's trade policy has fluctuated between protectionism and openness, significantly influencing its manufacturing performance. Critics, drawing from dependency theory, argue that liberalization exposes weaker economies to exploitation by stronger nations, leading to trade imbalances and inhibiting industrial growth. This study investigates the nonlinear effects of trade liberalization on Nigeria’s manufacturing sector, addressing a gap in the literature by employing a quadratic approach to determine threshold effects. By incorporating a quadratic form of the trade variable, the study tests the hypothesis that trade liberalization initially boosts the manufacturing sector but results in diminishing returns as openness intensifies. The research is framed within the Laffer Curve of Trade, suggesting that beyond a certain threshold, excessive openness may harm the manufacturing sector. The AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model is used to assess both short-run and long-run effects, with findings indicating a convex relationship between trade liberalization and manufacturing output, highlighting the critical importance of identifying optimal policy thresholds to maximize industrial growth. 

The research revealed and analysed a trend, between 1995-2020, of a declining gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) to domestic value added in gross exports (DVA in Gross exports) ratio in manufacturing industries for most Advanced Economies, which occurred on the backdrop of increasing of intermediate consumption of professional services. Our model proves the partial substitution of GFCF with intermediate consumption of professional services in Advanced Economies due to the change of production operating model (value chain management in manufacturing industries), which is evidenced by high influence of the combined factor on the DVA in Gross exports. This substitution facilitates the upgrading of value chain by creation of backward and forward linkages for manufacturing industries, depending on their R&D intensity. Systemic and long-term nature of changes may reflect potential paradigm shift in Advanced Economies' production operating models. 

Intra-SADC trade has not met the target that was set by the African Continental Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) of achieving 22% by the year 2022 due to a myriad of various trade-related challenges. This present study aims to compare the results of using a Poisson Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML) with Random Effects (RE), Fixed Effects (FE), and an Ordinary Least Squares (POLS) model on a balanced panel of select eight Southern African Development Community (SADC) members that trade with South Africa over the period 2010-2022. The paper empirically examines how South Africa’s overlapping Regional Economic Community (REC) membership affects bilateral trade. Also, the examination of how the impact of distance between South Africa and its trading partners impacts bilateral trade. The study findings are that PPML provides more robust results than other estimation techniques in estimating the gravity model for a balanced micro panel. From the PPML results, distance has a significant negative impact at a 5% level on bilateral exports from South Africa which implies that SADC countries that are relatively far in terms of distance from South Africa and landlocked tend to experience a relative fall in exports from South Africa.  However, multiple REC membership has a positive and significant impact of 1% level of significance on bilateral trade contrary to the negative relationship that was expected. The study recommends the speedy conclusion of outstanding AfCFTA issues for member states to effectively benefit from the economies that economic geography presents.

The study employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds model to test for cointegration and the Toda and Yamamoto and Dolado and Lütkepohl (TYDL) model to examine the direction of causality between exports and economic growth for Botswana covering the period 1980 to 2021. Exports statistically positively affect economic growth both in the short-run and long-run and trade openness is detrimental to economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. Economic growth promotes exports both in the short-run and long-run. Economic growth granger causes exports and indirectly influences exports through trade openness and consumer price index. Furthermore, there exists bidirectional causality between economic growth and the consumer price index. The findings underscore the importance of maintaining a healthy and stable macroeconomic environment in Botswana. In addition, a well-rounded approach that considers both export-oriented industrialization and import substitution strategies remains essential for a robust economic growth trajectory.

This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships between exports and economic growth in the Sothern Africa Customs Union (SACU), as well as the corresponding threshold level. The study used panel data covering the period 1980 to 2021 and employed the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds to test for co-integration relationships, and the Generalized Least Squares (GLS) to determine the respective threshold level.  Exports positively support economic growth both in the short-run and in the long-run in SACU. There is long-run bidirectional causality between exports and economic growth. The minimum threshold for exports is 59%. That is, exports only start contributing significantly to economic growth when they are above 59% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). SACU should put in place economic policies and regulations that are skewed towards the improvement of the competitiveness of its local products on the global market and also strategically consider export-oriented industrialization strategies. Efforts should also be channeled towards the implementation of bilateral and multilateral trade agreements and harnessing the synergic benefits through the adoption of deliberate value chain mechanisms and initiatives.

Trade facilitation is widely touted in the literature as a means to increase trade, capital inflows, and economic growth as a result of lower transaction costs; however, its implementation and efficacy pose challenges, especially for developing nations. Despite controversies and differing perspectives on these challenges, some of which were published prior to February 22, 2017, when the Trade Facilitation Agreement went into effect, there is no meta-analysis that evaluates the validity of these challenges. This qualitative meta-analysis is a systematic review of qualitative research examining the difficulties and obstacles developing countries face in instituting trade facilitation reforms. This document lays the groundwork for resolving general trade facilitation implementation challenges in Southern Africa, and in particular Zimbabwe. Significant obstacles to the successful implementation of trade facilitation initiatives include limited financial resources, infrastructural inadequacy, and inadequate institutional architecture. Requisite human capital inadequacy is one of the primary impediments to the successful implementation of the trade facilitation reform process. The elimination of these obstacles would unquestionably boost innovation in trade and commerce, as well as the region's trade legitimacy. Trade liberalization, improvement of legal inter-regional trade, and active participation by merchants in global value chains could be advantageous to governments in developing countries through trade facilitation.

This paper delves into the intricate challenges encountered by Tanzania in effectively implementing the East African Community (EAC) Common Market Protocol (CMP) pertaining to the seamless movement of goods to Kenya. The research adopts a case study design, employing qualitative and in-depth methods to gather data. The data collection process utilizes a purposeful sampling technique involving 30 participants, and thematic analysis is employed for data analysis. The findings highlight several tariff barriers that hinder the effective implementation of the EAC CMP, including customs duties, quantitative restrictions, measures with equivalent impact to customs duties, and those with equivalent impact to quantitative restrictions. Furthermore, the study uncovers non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that impede the free movement of goods from Tanzania to Kenya, such as political barriers, high transportation costs, food insecurity, discrepancies in standards, limited logistics and trade services, and restricted access to finance. The study concludes that the EAC Partner States bear the responsibility of eliminating existing tariff and non-tariff restrictions that obstruct trade, as well as refraining from imposing new ones. This research significantly contributes to our understanding of the economic integration within the EAC by shedding light on the novel challenges encountered in the implementation of the CMP concerning the free movement of goods.

This study scrutinises drivers of trade performance in the SADC region amid the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).  Where the short and long-run impact, through the Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) and forecasts through IRF of external debt, debt service cost, GDP per capita, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), and Terms of Trade (TOT) on the trade balance is interrogated. In the long run, external debt, debt service costs, and GDP per capita negatively influenced the trade balance. TOT was found to be an insignificant predictor. This implies that these variables were among the significant drivers of trade balance while the impact of terms of trade is negligible in the region. FDI positively impacts regional trade balance, which informs us that it acts as a stimulus for trade in the area. Short-run results revealed that external debt and GDP per capita affected trade balance positively, while debt service costs, FDI and TOT were found to have a negative impact. IRF results showed that shocks from external debt and per capita GDP pose a positive instant impact, while shocks from FDI and TOT were proven to worsen the trade balance in the region. The region needs an FDI stimulus.  

This study used secondary data from World Development Indicators to examine the implication of the Russia-Ukraine war on Trade relations and Foreign Direct Investment flows into other parts of the world. Data from 85 countries between 2012 and 2021 were analyzed using the generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. Findings revealed that the coefficients of export goods, international trade represented by external trade, food exports and fuel exports had positive and significant results from both panels and all the sub-regions, except for Europe, which revealed a mixed result. Conversely, results from food imports, military expenditure, fuel imports and fossil energy consumption revealed negative but significant results, except food imports in Europe showed an insignificant result. Conclusively, the findings of this study revealed that the current war has increased military expenditure, which has caused a significant setback to FDI and trade relations. This has undermined both bilateral and multilateral trade relations and cut off supply chains, markets, and value chains that have long existed before the crisis amongst countries across the globe. Therefore, world leaders should do everything possible to restore peace between these two countries because it will do the world better than their selfish desires. In addition, if the war degenerates more than this, it would not only be injurious to the global market, trade routes, economy and FDI but can lead the world to another world war. Conclusively, this study will help world countries, governments, leaders, policymakers, investors, and companies in various decision-making endeavors, including war-related decisions. World leaders with management crisis skills who can unite nations should help mediate the conflict between Russia and Ukraine to restore peace. However, further studies are still required on this ongoing war for scholarly guidance as there are still limited empirical studies in the world literature regarding this crisis.

This paper use the dynamic growth framework to model the relationship between trade liberalization policy and economic growth of 42 African countries from 1995 to 2018. Banking on the heterogeneity of income and socioeconomic factor affecting trade policies in African countries, the paper opted for the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) technique which is sufficient for inference in a dynamic heterogeneous environment. The result tells that trade liberalization policy is beneficial to economic growth of African countries up to a certain threshold, beyond which it begins to cause the economy to under-heat. Thus, a confirmation of nonlinear relationship between trade liberalization policy and economic growth in African countries. The paper estimates a threshold value of 139.94% of total Trade to GDP; 345.32% of Export to GDP and 62.80% of Import to GDP. These findings champion that, for countries in Africa to benefit largely from trade, trade openness, export openness, and import openness should rover around the estimated threshold values. The paper documents certain conditions required to moderate the effect of trade liberalization policy on economic growth in African countries.

Non-tariff measures such as food safety and technical standards are used to achieve the non-trade objective of protecting consumers’ health and safety. On the other hand, they can also be deployed as a trade secure tool to drive a price wedge between foreign and domestic producers. This study investigates the protectionist tools of 34 developing countries food safety standards using a sample of developing countries food imported from developed and other developing countries with a specific focus on vegetables, Trunks, machinery, and tobacco. We employ theoretical framework of gravity equation by applying SGMM estimation. Our results indicate that vegetable and machinery variables are negative and statistically significant. Meaning that both variables have a negative impact on GDP, in other words, both variables are not support GDP and economic growth in the developing countries. Finally, Trunk variable is positive and statistically significant. It shows that, this variable leads to promote economic growth in the developing countries. While Tobacco is positive and statistically insignificant, meaning that this product is not play an important role in the trade sector in our sample countries.

Although Turkey has historically concentrated its trade with the European Union (EU) it has diversified its trade markets with the neighbouring regions and different group of countries during the last decade. Among them, Arab countries have come into prominence. Especially, following the “zero problems with neighbours” policy (ZPN), pursued by Turkey since 2002, the trade volume with the Middle Eastern neighbours has increased faster than that with its traditional partners. Nevertheless so called “Arab Spring” has started to manifest its effects on this trend. It deteriorates not only the economies of the concerned countries but also Turkey’s trade expansion. This paper aims: (i) to test through a gravity model the positive impacts of the ZPN policy and the negative impact of the Arab Spring on the trade expansion with the Spring Countries; and (ii) to reveal the positive impact of the policy change and the negative impact of the uprising movements on the realization of trade potential by Turkey in the Spring Countries.