Explore publications.

<p>Considering the impacts of the conflict on the economic parameters in terms of macroeconomics, the following factors might affect the profitability of the company: foreign capital outflows, decrease in exports, increase in the interest rates, disruption of the investment climate, increase in the exchange rates, increase in the costs of import entry etc. Due to the expectable decrease in profit shares as to the investors, the contraction in the risk appetite will cause volatility in the prices of equity securities markets based on the impacts of the conflict, and the equity securities will depreciate. In this study, the main contributions on conflict risk and related econometric models have been discussed.</p>

<p>The World Bank is the most important financier for international investment. The bank opens credits mostly for investment projects in developing countries. Turkey has received various investment credits since its membership to the World Bank on March 11, 1947. The credits were used for economic and social domains. Turkey has also been granted credits from the European Investment Bank (EIB). The credits received are composed of micro credits that belong to small and medium enterprises (SMEs). A regional development bank, Islamic Development Bank, has also received credits through Eximbank and Industrial Development Bank of Turkey (TSKB) to finance Turkish SMEs. This paper deals with Turkish investment strategies in the framework of basic principles of investment – development banks.</p>

<p>Banks, one of the most significant economic means of the nations and international organizations, have occasionally become one of the institutions mostly affected by the financial crisis in the world. Especially in the economies of the developed countries, one of the most important aspects of the financial sector is measured by the size of the financial resources and assets of the banks. The size and place of the investment banks depends on the investment and existing credit reserves appropriated by its members. From this perspective, scrutinizing the Investment and Developments Banks, which is one of the economic growth criteria, is of high importance. To this end, in addition to the operation of the Investment and Development Banks, financial products of these banks in Turkey are also analyzed in this study.</p>

Bu çal??man?n amac?, Türkiye’de hayat d??? sigortac?l?k sektöründe aktif karl?l??? ile firmaya özgü faktörler aras?ndaki ili?kiyi tespit ederek aktif kârl?l???n?n etkinlikten mi yoksa yo?unla?madan m? kaynakland???n? belirlemektir. Bu amaçla, Türk sigorta sektöründe faaliyet gösteren 36 hayat d??? sigorta ?irketi aras?nda 2015 y?l? verilerine göre pazar?n toplam %83.38’ini olu?turan 15 sigorta ?irketinin 2010-2015 dönemine ait mali verileri ile performans ili?kisine yönelik Period SUR panel veri analizi yap?lm??t?r. Analiz sonuçlar?na göre, aktif büyüklü?ü, likidite ve pazar pay? de?i?kenleri ile aktif karl?l??? aras?nda pozitif ve istatistiki olarak anlaml? bir ili?ki tespit edilmi?ken kald?raç, hasar/prim oran? ve firma ya?? de?i?kenleri aras?nda ise negatif ve istatistiki olarak anlaml? bir ili?ki tespit edilmi?tir.  Analiz dönemi boyunca Herfindahl–Hirschman Endeksi de?erleri 1.500’ün alt?nda oldu?u için Türkiye’de hayat d??? sigortac?l?k sektörünün yo?un olmayan bir piyasa görünümünde oldu?u tespit edilmi?tir. Bu nedenle, hayat d??? sigortac?l?k sektöründe aktif kârl?l??? yo?unla?madan daha ziyade faaliyetlerdeki etkinlikten kaynaklanmaktad?r.

Nowadays, one of the leading factors used in the evaluation of a country’s economic development is energy consumption. Because of economic growth, demand for energy is also increasing. In this study, the emerging European countries’ (the Czech Republic, Poland, Romania, Turkey) and the CIS countries’ (Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, Uzbekistan)  electricity consumption has been forecasted for five years period (2015-2019). In the study, GM(1,1) Rolling Model, which is developed in the framework of Grey System Theory is used as a mathematical model for real-time forecasting. The results of the study show that there will not be a significant change in electricity demand in this two area during the 2015-2109 period. 

The purpose of this study was to analyze the dividend performance of eight UAE based banks between the years 2001 and 2005. The analysis was undertaken by examining three sets of financial ratios that are routinely used to measure bank dividend performance. The main ratios that were employed put a particular focus on the banks’ ability to pay dividends in relation to market value of its share, earnings and ability to cover the payments. Descriptive statistical analysis was used to rank the performance, measuring the dispersion and the stability-variability of the indicators. Conclusions were then drawn from the computation of the descriptive analysis of ratios that allowed the author to make an effective comparison of said banks. This type of analysis was used to summarize the performance of each bank based on three criteria, mean, standard deviation and coefficient of variation of each banks performance. The findings showed that eight banks performed reasonably well during the period studied, but have different strategies in paying their dividends across the years under study. The analysis reveals that these banks have been affected by both internal and external factors.

This paper investigates how firms shifted their dividend policies and leverage policies in response to the economic shock caused by the 2008 financial crisis. The sample countries are United States, Great Britain, France, Germany, Australia, Japan, China, and Korea. The empirical relationship of firms’ dividend policies with their capital structures and earnings was likely to undergo a major change around the 2008 financial crisis, as firms adjusted their capital structures and dividend policies in response to the extreme credit crunch caused by the financial crisis. The extent and the speed that firms deleverage themselves and reduce their dividends were likely to be influenced by countries’ cultural and social norms. This paper finds a significant reduction in dividends across sample countries except Great Britain and France after the 2008 crisis. This finding supports the free cash flow theory that dividends are paid to dissipate free cash flow to address agency conflicts between managers and shareholders. This paper finds a higher correlation between dividends and leverages before the 2008 crisis, and that it strengthened after the crisis except Great Britain and Korea. This finding is consistent more with the pecking order theory than with the trade-off theory of leverage.

Bu ara?t?rmada, kamu iktisadi te?ekkülü olarak faaliyet gösteren Elektrik Üretim Anonim ?irketi (EÜA?) Genel Müdürlü?ü Hirfanl? Hidroelektrik Santrali (HES) ??letmesi’nin aktifinde kay?tl? maddi duran varl?klar?n?n gerçe?e uygun de?erleri ile envanter kay?tlar?nda yer alan tarihi (net) de?erleri kar??la?t?r?lm??t?r. Ara?t?rmada varl?k de?erleme çal??mas?nda; bilimsel esaslar, uluslararas? standartlar ve mevzuat?n amir hükümlerine göre gerçekle?tirilmi? ve i?letmenin varl?klar?n de?erlenmesinde piyasa de?eri (emsal de?er, ikame de?eri), maliyet yönetimi ve di?er de?erleme ölçütlerinden faydalan?lm??t?r. ??letmenin mevcut mali kay?tlar?na göre maddi duran varl?klar?n?n 2016 y?l?n?n fiyatlar? üzerinden toplam de?erinin (8.872.054,07 TL), söz konusu varl?klar?n güncel de?erinden (54.342.356,11 TL) yakla??k 6 kat daha dü?ük oldu?u ve do?al olarak i?letmenin varl?k de?erinin oldu?undan çok daha dü?ük olarak kay?tlara yans?t?ld??? dikkati çekmektedir. Ara?t?rma sonuçlar?na göre i?letmenin maddi duran varl?klar?n envanter ve de?erleme çal??malar?n?n, gerçek varl?k de?erlerinin analiz edilmesi ve ç?kan sonuçlar?n finansal yönden yorumlamas? bak?m?ndan anlaml? oldu?u ortaya konulmu?tur.

Küreselle?me, mal ve hizmetlerin dünya ölçe?inde serbest dola??m?d?r. Günümüzde teknolojide ya?anan geli?meler küreselle?menin h?z?n? artt?rm??t?r. Küreselle?meyle birlikte,  ekonomik geli?melerde ya?anan belirsizlik ve karma??kl?k, toplumlar?n ve bireylerin sosyo- ekonomik yap?lar?n? de?i?tirmi?tir. Toplumlar?n sosyo ekonomik yap?lar? bireylerin finansal kararlar?yla ?ekillenmektedir. Bireylerin alm?? oldu?u finansal kararlar?n do?rulu?u, bireylerin finansal okuryazarl?k düzeyi ile ilgilidir. Karma??k ve belirsiz ko?ullar içindeki ekonomide toplumun en küçük yap?s? olan ailelerin ald??? finansal kararlar sadece aileyi de?il tüm toplumu etkilemektedir. Ailelerin de?i?imin h?zl? ve sürekli oldu?u ekonomik hayatta ald??? yanl?? finansal kararlar nedeniyle birlik ve düzeni bozulmaktad?r. Bunun için demografik özelli?i farkl? her bireyin sahip oldu?u finansal okuryazarl?k düzeyini yükseltecek finansal e?itim uygulamalar?n?n önemi yüksektir. Birçok ara?t?rmada, ya?l? ve e?itim düzeyi dü?ük bireylerin daha çok finansal risk içinde oldu?u vurgulanmaktad?r. Bu çal??mada, Türk Silahl? Kuvvetlerinde görev yapm?? emekli askeri personelin finansal okuryazarl?k seviyesi incelenmi?tir. Ülkenin savunma hizmetlerinde çal??an Türk Silahl? Kuvvetleri personeli, görev sahas? itibariyle finansal sistemlerde ya?anan geli?melere uzak kalabilmektedir. Bu durum, bilgiye dayal? finansal kararlar alma becerisinin önemini art?rmaktad?r. Çal??ma sonucunda, emekli askeri personelin finansal okuryazarl?k seviyesi ve finansal bilgileri tespit edilmi?tir. Bu tespitler do?rultusunda aktif olarak görev yapan askeri personelin gelece?e dönük finansal fark?ndal???n? artt?rmak amaçlanm??t?r.

Küreselle?me ve teknolojik geli?meler sonucunda i?letme faaliyetlerinin çe?itlenmesi ve karma??k bir yap?ya dönü?mesi hile ve yolsuzluklar?n ara?t?r?lmas? ve ortaya ç?kar?lmas?nda yarg? mensuplar? veya suç bilimi ara?t?rmac?lar?n?n yetersiz kalmas?na yol açm??t?r. Özellikle 21. yüzy?lda ya?anan ?irket ve denetim skandallar?, finansal raporlamaya olan?n güvenin sars?lmas?na, muhasebe ve denetim i?levlerinin yeniden gözden geçirilmesine bu da i?letmelerde yeni bir uzmanl?k alan? olan adli muhasebecilik mesle?inin ortaya ç?kmas?na neden olmu?tur. Adli muhasebeciler, hukuki süreçle muhasebe süreci aras?nda köprü görevi yürüterek, hata ve hilelerin tespit edilmesi ve sonras?nda davalara destek olma aç?s?ndan önemli bir role sahiptirler.Bu çal??man?n amac? adli muhasebe ve adli muhasebecilik kavramlar?n? aç?klad?ktan sonra, adli muhasebe mesle?inin mevcut durumu ve gelece?ine yönelik bilgi vermektir.

The main objective of this paper is to predict the consequences of China's impending economic crisis on global economy – with reference to Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) in particular. The specific objective of this paper is to investigate and explore the increasing dominance of economic practice of China in SSA. China is a critical principal player in the economy of SSA. China's influence and dominance of the SSA economy might have negative effect on SSA in case of any implosion of the Chinese economy. Data were collected from print and electronic sources extracted from the vast body of empirical scholarship of different disciplines on China in SSA.  The results of this paper revealed that China is indeed dominating the economy in SSA. Pointers are that China's economic implosion would have consequences for SSA in the same way as the 2008-2009 global economic recession had around the world. This  paper positively predicts that China's economic and financial implosion remains a possibility, and would impact on SSA.

A nascent literature in finance and accounting on tail risk in individual stock returns concludes that bad news hoarding by corporate managers engenders sudden, extreme crashes in a firm’s stock price when the bad news is eventually made public. This literature finds that firm-specific crash risk is higher among firms with more severe asymmetric information and agency problems. A hitherto disjointed literature spanning the fields of international business, finance, and accounting suggests that geographic dispersion in a firm’s operations, and especially dispersion across different countries, gives rise to organizational complexities and greater costs of monitoring that can exacerbate asymmetric information and agency problems. Motivated by the confluence of arguments and findings from these two strands of literature, this paper examines whether stock price crash risk is higher among multinational firms than domestic firms. Using a large sample of U.S. headquartered firms during 1987-2011, we find robust evidence that multinational firms are significantly more likely to crash than domestic firms. Moreover, we show that the difference in crash risk between multinational and domestic firms is most acute among firms with weaker corporate governance mechanisms, including weaker shareholder rights, less independent boards, and less stable institutional ownership. Our analysis indicates that stronger monitoring from each of these three governance mechanisms significantly attenuates the positive relation between crash risk and multinationality. Our findings are robust to the use of alternative measures of crash risk and to controlling for known determinants of crash risk identified in prior studies. Our study offers new insights that should hold value for scholars and market participants interested in understanding the implications of heighted agency problems that multinational firms are likely to encounter and scholars and market participants interested in developing models that more accurately predict tail risk in the equity returns of individual firms.

It is theoretically believed that increase in firm size would result to increase in firm profitability. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between size and profitability of six banks in Nigeria after the 2005 consolidation exercise. The measure of profitability is return on assets. Employing the static panel data regression method, the study found that size has an insignificant negative relationship with bank profitability. This study concludes that the 2005 consolidation exercise did not enhance the profitability of the selected banks.

The aim of this paper is to compare the views of internal controllers/auditors and branch/call center personnel of the banks with respect to the operational risk. Within this scope, we made two different surveys to the personnel in Turkish banks in order to achieve this objective. The first survey was conducted by 310 branch and call center personnel whereas 151 personnel in internal control and audit departments of the banks carried out the second survey. The major finding in this study is that there is a difference in the views of these two groups regarding the evaluation of operational risk. In general, internal controllers/auditors look at the operational risk more negatively than branch/call center personnel. The personnel who control and audit operations in the bank think that operational risk knowledge level of branch/call center personnel is less sufficient, operational risk levels are higher, the controls to avoid this risk are less efficient than branch/call center personnel consider.

Corporate governance refers to the relationship present between the corporation and the stakeholders that determines and controls the strategic direction and performance of the corporation. Good corporate governance should provide adequate incentives for the board and management to pursue objectives that are in the interests of the company and shareholders, thereby encouraging firms to use resources more efficiently. However, the definition of accountability differs between conventional and Islamic Banks. Islam was made accountable not only to stakeholders, but also to Allah, the ultimate owner and authority. These powerful moral ethics help in promoting fair, just and honest business dealing. The aim of this study is to examine the relationship between corporate governance structures and the resultant financial performance of listed Islamic banks of Dhaka Stock Exchange (DSE) in Bangladesh. The panel time series data were collected for the time period of 6 years (2009-2014) from all the listed Islamic banks to run an Ordinary Least Squared (OLS) regression model to examine whether the existing corporate governance mechanisms as well as several other internal and external indicators are significant in influencing the financial performance. Preliminary findings suggest corporate governance mechanisms in Islamic banks are not quite as strong as they should be, hinting at possible market and management inefficiencies.

The purpose of this study is to explore the importance and ranking of technical analysis variables in Turkish banking sector. Random Forest method is used for determining importance scores of inputs for eight banks in Borsa Istanbul. Then two predictive models utilizing Random Forest (RF) and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are built for predicting BIST-100 index and bank closing prices. Results of the models are compared by three metrics namely Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Square Error (MSE), Median Absolute Error (MedAE). Findings show that moving average (MAV-100) is the most important variable for both BIST -100 index and bank closing prices. Therefore, investors should follow this technical indicator with respect to Turkish banks. In addition ANN shows better performance for all metrics.

I explore company characteristics which explain the difference in analysts’ recommendations for companies that were underwritten (affiliated) versus non-underwritten (unaffiliated) by analysts’ brokerage firms. Prior literature documents that analysts issue more optimistic recommendations to underwriting clients of analysts’ brokerage employers. Extant research uses regression models to find general associations between recommendations and financial qualities of companies, with or without underwriting relationship. However, regression models cannot identify the qualities that cause the most difference in recommendations between affiliated versus unaffiliated companies. I adopt uplift random forest model, a popular technique in recent marketing and healthcare research, to identify the type of companies that earn analysts’ favor. I find that companies of stable earnings in the past, higher book-to-market ratio, smaller sizes, worsened earnings, and lower forward PE ratio are likely to receive higher recommendations if  they are affiliated with analysts than if they are unaffiliated with analysts. With uplift random forest model, I show that analysts pay more attention on price-related than earnings-related matrices when they value affiliated versus unaffiliated companies. This paper contributes to the literature by introducing an effective predictive model to capital market research and shedding additional light on the usefulness of analysts’ reports.

Emeklilik fonlar?, i) uzun vadeli yat?r?m perspektifine sahip olmas?, ii) finansal piyasalardaki oynakl??? uzun vadeye yayarak absorbe edebilmesi, ve iii) yat?r?mlar?n? hisse senedi ve altyap? fonlar? ile reel ekonomiye aktarmalar? sayesinde; finansal piyasalardaki oynakl???n azalmas?na katk?da bulunmaktad?r. Bu çal??ma, geli?mekte olan ülkelerde (GOÜ),  emeklilik fonlar?n?n ekonomideki pay?n?n en dü?ük oldu?u ülkelerden Türkiye'de (%2) ve en yüksek oldu?u ülkelerden ?ili'de (%66) emeklilik sistemlerinin kar??la?t?rmal? analizini sunarak, emeklilik fonlar?n?n finansal piyasalardaki oynakl??a olan etkisini 2004-2014 dönemi için incelemektedir. Çal??ma ayn? zamanda, Türkiye’de uygulanmas? planlanan ‘otomatik kat?l?m sistemi’ ve bu sistemi tamamlay?c? ‘fon ürünleri’ üzerine politika önerilerini de kapsamaktad?r.

Bankac?l???n bir risk yönetme sanat? oldu?u genel kabul görmü? bir durumdur. Bu sanat? icra ederken belirli kurallar ve bir sürecin varl??? gereklidir. Risk denilince akla “kar??l???nda net bir zarar?n hesaplanabilece?i olumsuz bir durum” gelmektedir. Ne var ki, bankac?l???n ilk ça?lardan beri bankac?l?k faaliyetlerinin temelinde olan “güven” unsuru gibi daha soyut riskleri içerisinde bar?nd?rmaktad?r. Güvenin sars?lmas? ile h?zl? bir ?ekilde yay?labilecek zarar, bankalara öngörülemez sonuçlar haz?rlayabilir. Bu nedenle, bankalar?n risklerini hesap ederken sadece finansal, hesaplanabilir riskler için de?il finansal olmayan riskler için de gerekli önlemleri almalar? gerekmektedir. Türk bankac?l?k sisteminde finansal olmayan risklerin ba??nda önemi giderek artan “itibar riski” gelmektedir. Bankac?l?kta faaliyet alan? hesaplar ve rakamlar üzerine oldu?undan, itibar riski sorununun böyle bir alana oturtuldu?unda aç?klamas? ve hesaplamas? ne kadar zor bir sürecin ortaya ç?kt??? anla??lacakt?r. ?tibar riskinin yönetilmesi, süreci konusunda literatürde Türkiye’de bankac?l?k sistemine dair çal??malar yok denecek kadar azd?r. Bu çal??mada, itibar riskinin önlenmesi, yönetilmesi ve süreci için Türk bankac?l?k sistemindeki düzenlemeler irdelenecek olup yine Türk bankac?l?k sistemindeki itibar riskinin gerçekle?ti?i vakalar incelenecektir.

Yat?r?m f?rsatlar?n?n de?erlendirilmesi süreci beklenen getiri ve riskin ölçümüne ba?l?d?r. Finansal Varl?klar? Fiyatlama Modeli (FVFM), çok uzun y?llard?r modern finans teorisinin temel ta?lar?ndan bir tanesini olu?turmaktad?r. Model, varl?klar?n beklenen getirisi ve sistematik riski aras?ndaki basit do?rusal ili?kiyi ortaya koymaktad?r. Model halen, sermaye maliyetinin hesaplanmas?, portföy yönetiminin performans?n?n ölçülmesi ve yat?r?mlar?n de?erlendirilmesi amac?yla kullan?lmaktad?r. FVFM’in çekicili?i, beklenen getiri ve risk aras?ndaki ili?kinin ölçümlenmesi konusundaki güçlü tahmin yetene?inden gelmektedir. Bununla birlikte modelin bu yetene?i 30 y?l? a?k?n bir süredir akademisyenler ve uygulamac?lar taraf?ndan sorgulanmaktad?r. Tart??malar büyük ölçüde ampirik düzeyde gerçekle?tirilmektedir. FVFM’in ampirik düzeydeki problemleri, çok say?da basitle?tirilmi? varsay?m? içermesi nedeniyle teorik hatalard?r. Çok say?daki gerçekçi olmayan varsay?m modeli pratik olarak kullan??s?z hale getirmektedir. Model ile ilgili temel ele?tiriler ise risksiz faiz oran?, pazar portföyü ve beta katsay? üzerinde yo?unla?maktad?r. Bu çal??mada, modelin varsay?mlar? ve temel bulgular?n?n yan? s?ra uygulamas?na yönelik yap?lan ele?tiriler ele al?nacakt?r.