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This study examines the magnitude, timing, and persistence of export gains from Turkey’s regional trade agreements (RTAs), addressing why previous studies found null effects despite extensive preferential liberalization. A structural gravity framework analyzes Turkey’s bilateral exports to over 160 partners (1996–2020) using PPML estimation with country-pair fixed effects. Dynamic RTA indicators capture anticipation and phased-in effects over twelve years, while time-varying border coefficients isolate policy effects from globalization trends. RTAs generate large, persistent export gains that accumulate gradually rather than immediately. Cumulative effects reach 815 percent over twelve years without globalization controls, or 102 percent when secular trends are absorbed, both of which are economically substantial. The absence of anticipation effects validates causal interpretation. Trade agreements function as medium- to long-term integration instruments. Policy continuity and complementary domestic reforms amplify RTA benefits. This study provides the first comprehensive dynamic assessment of Turkey’s RTA effects within a structural gravity framework, resolving puzzling null findings from earlier specifications and establishing bounds on policy-attributable export gains.

This study examines the effects of global tariff adjustments on the susceptibility of South African manufacturing exports from 2020 to 2025. The escalation of protectionism and uncertainty in trade policy has progressively impacted export performance in emerging manufacturing economies. This study seeks to evaluate the impact of tariff changes on export volume, sector composition, and firm-level adaptation techniques in South Africa's manufacturing sector.A quantitative methodology was utilised, employing secondary data from international trade and macroeconomic databases, encompassing sector-specific export statistics, tariff exposure metrics, exchange rate controls, and global demand variables. Descriptive statistical analysis and multivariate regression modelling were employed to investigate the correlation between tariff exposure and export performance in principal industrial sectors. The results indicate that tariff adjustments had a statistically significant adverse effect on the growth of industrial exports. A one-percent increase in tariff exposure correlated with an estimated 0.5–0.6 percent decline in export growth within tariff-sensitive sectors. The automotive and textile industries displayed the greatest susceptibility, whereas processed manufacturing exports showed enhanced resilience, possibly attributable to regional market diversification. company-level adaptation options, including regional market growth and investments in automation, alleviated export losses but demonstrated inconsistent success across different sectors and company sizes. This study enhances the trade resilience literature by offering empirical evidence that connects global tariff changes to sector-specific export susceptibility in a middle-income manufacturing economy. The results highlight the significance of industry enhancement, regional trade integration, and export diversification in reducing vulnerability to external trade disturbances. The findings provide significant insights for industrial and trade policies intended to improve South Africa's long-term manufacturing export competitiveness in the context of persistent global trade volatility.

The study aims to examine the key drivers and financing mechanisms of infrastructure development in Africa and their impact on trade facilitation and regional economic integration. It focuses on understanding the political, economic, and institutional factors shaping sustainable infrastructure growth and trade expansion across the continent. The African continent engages in relatively limited intra-continental trade, with intra-African trade consistently averaging between 12% and 15%. At a broader level, trade growth is widely regarded as a key driver of economic development, employment generation, and poverty reduction. However, the persistent low levels of trade among African countries coupled with high unemployment and widespread poverty have sparked discussions around the urgent need to strengthen both intra-regional and continental trade. In pursuit of regional integration, various regional economic communities were established, including the Southern African Development Community (SADC). Despite these efforts, concerns persist regarding weak economic infrastructure across several regions of the continent, including within the SADC bloc. Inadequate infrastructure has been identified as a major impediment to enhancing intra-African trade. Against this backdrop, the present study aims to empirically examine the relationship between economic infrastructure and intra-regional trade within the SADC region. The analysis employs panel data covering all 15 SADC member states, utilizing datasets from the SADC Secretariat and the World Bank. Applying the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique, the findings indicate a positive and statistically significant relationship between infrastructure development and intra-SADC exports.

This paper analyses the factors influencing South Africa's net trade in communications, computer, and technology-related commodities with a linear regression econometric methodology from 2015 to 2024. Utilising Structuralist Trade Theory, Endogenous Growth Theory, and Digital Trade Theory, the study assesses the impact of high-technology exports and ICT-related service trade on the nation's net trade in goods within the Balance of Payments framework. The model utilises annual time-series data, integrating high-technology exports quantified as a proportion of manufactured exports and in absolute monetary terms, in conjunction with communications and computer service imports and exports. The empirical findings indicate that increases in the absolute value of high-technology exports and ICT service exports positively influence net trade performance, whereas ICT service imports have a detrimental effect. The decreasing proportion of high-technology exports in manufacturing indicates ongoing fundamental deficiencies in industrial advancement. The findings suggest that South Africa's trade sustainability relies on enhancing innovation-driven exports and diminishing dependence on imported digital services. The research offers pertinent insights for export diversification, digital industrial advancement, and sustained trade competitiveness in emerging economies.

The findings underscore the significance of institutional stability and macro-financial predictability in maintaining export performance in volatile emerging economies. Enhancing regulatory quality, bolstering macro-financial stability, and augmenting enterprises' capacity to manage risk will facilitate more robust export results. Incorporating institutional and financial frictions directly into gravity models offers a more accurate framework for policy assessment. This research employs a structural gravity model, estimated using Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood, to analyse Turkey's bilateral export flows to 164 partner nations from 1996 to 2020. Political stability and exchange rate volatility are integrated as time-varying institutional and financial frictions. Indices of economic scale, geographical distance, and remoteness are incorporated to maintain alignment with structural gravity theory. The political stability of destination nations is a crucial positive factor influencing Turkish exports and signifies the existence of a governance premium. Exchange rate fluctuation exerts a sustained adverse impact, diminishing the anticipated advantages of nominal depreciation. Visual data indicates two consistent behavioural tendencies. Exporters are increasingly venturing into politically risky countries; yet, long-term export growth is constrained by institutional inertia and robust network dependencies. The findings indicate that institutional reliability and macro-financial predictability are crucial for maintaining export performance in volatile emerging economies. Enhanced regulatory quality, greater macro-financial stability, and superior firm-level risk management are essential for achieving more resilient export outcomes. Incorporating institutional and financial frictions directly into gravity models offers a more accurate framework for comprehending trade dynamics and formulating effective policies.

Cross-border trade within the Economic Community of West African States remains fundamental to regional food distribution, small-scale commerce, and household livelihoods. Yet traders continue to confront persistent non-tariff barriers, administrative delays, and governance weaknesses that raise the cost of moving goods across borders. This paper investigates how informal governance, corruption pressures, and institutional trust shape trade frictions, drawing on UN Comtrade bilateral flows, the Africa Trade Observatory price data, and Afrobarometer perceptions of institutional performance. Using price-gap estimation and a structural gravity framework, the analysis measures how governance quality influences trade costs and distortions in reported bilateral flows. The findings reveal consistent price gaps between official and actual market values for cereals, livestock, and processed foods, suggesting hidden costs linked to bribe payments and informal checkpoint controls. Gravity results indicate that countries with weak institutional trust experience significantly lower formal trade reporting but higher estimated informal flows. These results align with evidence from Afreximbank, ECDPM, FAO, and the African Development Bank on the persistence of informal corridors as adaptive responses to border inefficiencies. The paper concludes with recommendations for coordinated reforms on transparency, digital border systems, and joint border posts to reduce hidden costs and improve regional integration.