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Bu çal??mada Türkiye’de pay senetleri fiyatlar? ile döviz kurlar? aras?ndaki ili?ki, VAR metodu (vektör oto regresyon modeli) kullan?larak ara?t?r?lm??t?r. Döviz kurlar? ve pay senedi fiyatlar?ndan olu?an de?i?kenler aras?nda do?rusal bir ba??nt? olup olmad???n?n tespiti amac?yla bu model kullan?lm??t?r. Bu amaçla, döviz kurlar?, B?ST Banka ve B?ST S?nai endeksleri ele al?nm??t?r. Veriler Ocak 2011’den Aral?k 2014’e kadar olan döneme ait günlük de?i?meleri içermektedir. Türkiye’de en fazla i?lem yap?lan döviz kurlar? ABD dolar? ve Euro oldu?u için, bu kurlar tercih edilmi?tir.

This study had the purpose to investigate the impact of 38 scheduled major United States (US) macroeconomic news on WTI crude oil intraday volatility for the period 2012-2018. It was the aim to provide a news ranking that indicates upcoming high volatility episodes at a specific point in time. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI) light crude oil represents a benchmark since it has a signal effect on market players. High crude oil price volatility is a measure of risk and known to increase inflation, to affect producers, consumers, and investors and to destabilize economic growth. In this research approach one-minute high-frequency bid close prices provided the basis for a 1h window rolling standard deviation. Data modeling was performed using simple and multiple robust ordinary least squares (OLS) regression performed with programming language Python. The model successfully identified 21 significant news announcements in both, the simple and multiple regression models, however, simple OLS-regression appears to be more sensitive. It also provided a ranking of US news impacting WTI volatility risk. The results support the prediction of approaching high price volatility and thus, display an opportunity for market participants and decision-makers to minimize risk.

The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

The study concentrates on the benefits of passive commodity investments in the context of the phenomenon of financialization. The research investigates the implications of increase in the correlation coefficients between equity and commodity investments for investors in financial markets. The paper is composed of several parts. First, the attributes of commodity investments and their benefits in the portfolio optimization are explored. Second, the phenomenon of the financialization is described and the research hypothesis is developed. Next, an empirical analysis is performed. I simulate the mean-variance spanning tests to examine the benefits of commodity investments before and after accounting for the impact of financialization. I proceed separate analysis for pre- and post-financialization period. The empirical research is based on asset classes’ returns and other related variables from years 1991-2012. The performed investigations indicate that the market financialization may have significant implications for commodity investors. Due to increase in correlation coefficients, the inclusion of the commodity futures in the traditional stock-bond portfolio appears to be no longer reasonable.

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 induced global panic on crude oil and natural gas volatility. The author uses the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) to examine the magnitude of shocks in global oil and gas prices caused by COVID-19 induced panic between 3rd January 2020 and 30th June 2021. The results show that shocks in oil and gas prices were negative and more severe in the first five (5) months of 2020 when the pandemic was spreading across the globe forcing countries' prices into lockdowns. The negative shocks gradually diminished in the following periods as the prices recovered courtesy of global economic recovery and vaccine rollouts. Furthermore, the panic was more pronounced in causing oil prices shocks as gas prices were already suffering amid mild temperatures during the 2020 winter season. The author stresses the need for swift actions during the early days of the crisis to adjust oil and gas supply to match demand shrinkage so as to stabilize their prices given their enormity to the global economy. The Russia-Saudi Arabia delays in agreeing on oil supply restrictions may have amplified the magnitude of negative shocks in oil prices. Existing studies have examined the country-level impacts of COVID-19 on energy prices focusing mainly on oil. However, oil and gas are among the most traded commodities in the world thus the stability of their prices is of global concern. This study examines this phenomenon on a global scale by utilizing the novel global coronavirus panic index.

Technology, innovation, and economic shocks have transformed global financial markets. The latest global health pandemic has been compared to the 2008 global financial crisis, as investors, lawmakers, and regulators worldwide worried about economic collapse. Johannesburg Stock Exchange is Africa's largest. The JSE names SIFIs, whose failure would threaten SA's economy. Uncertainty increases failure risk, as seen in the GFC and COVID-19. This study examined how economic shocks affected investor confidence in South Africa's growing financial market, the JSE 15 Index. Analysis of data from January 1999 to December 2023 examined short- and long-term stock market impacts, the role of the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) in stability, and investor conduct during crises. The two economic shocks' effects on JSE 15 index stock prices were examined using Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) and correlation analysis. ARDL determines short- and long-term macroeconomic cointegration. Three macroeconomic variables—interest rates (T-Bills), inflation (CPI), and real effective exchange rate (REER)—are used to track their fluctuation during crises. The analysis shows a shift in investor confidence reflected in a considerable decline in financial performance throughout the crisis. As investors' risk tolerance differs, diversification benefits made abnormal returns unimportant. SARB's monetary and fiscal policies mitigated the pandemic. South African investors were also wary due to internal issues. The study shows that global commodity prices and currency rate volatility affect investor confidence more than domestic policy in emerging economies, adding to behavioural finance.

This article investigates the nature of the relationship and the effects of changes in oil prices on South Africa's exchange rate. It fills an essential gap in comprehending how oil price shocks influence emerging market economic dynamics. Through the use of a Bayesian Vector Auto-Regressive (BVAR) model, this study finds that the initial oil price shock to exchange rates is weakly positive in the short run, reflecting a 1% increase in oil prices, leading to a 0.08% exchange rate appreciation. The study also finds an asymmetrical relationship between oil prices and exchange rates. These effects become more pronounced when global uncertainty is at its peak. These findings have implications for shaping policies in South Africa. Exchange rate stability strategies could involve diversifying energy sources and introducing risk-hedging methods while striving for stability through flexible monetary and fiscal policies. This research also adds to the ongoing conversation about the susceptibility of emerging market currencies to external pressures, serving as a reference point for examining comparable economies. This research enriches the existing body of knowledge by addressing methodological gaps and providing a contemporary analysis of South Africa's exchange rate dynamics in a post-crisis global economy.

The pricing of six highly liquid futures commodity contracts is investigated using a Markov switching procedure. The data set spans an exceptionally turbulent period, characterized by a complex interplay of economic/financial and political shocks. Markov switching analysis exploits time series nonlinearity to identify the nature and the timing of the implicit changes of regime. Building on a HAM framework, we use the time varying parameterization of the transition probability estimates to link these shifts to exogenous variables. We provide in this way additional information on the co-movement of the time series and on their regime shifts, eventually conducive to herding pricing behaviour. The WTI oil futures price and DJIA stock index are used as proxies for global shocks as they turn out to be the main common drivers of the changes in regime of most futures commodity prices.   

This study investigates the relationship between inflation dynamics and retail energy prices across Nigerian states. The paper utilizes LSDV and SYS-GMM techniques for the estimation of the static and dynamic panel models. The research disaggregates energy prices into PMS, AGO, HHK and Gas, with CPI as the dependent variable. State Revenue per capita income, representing demand-pull factor of inflation, is used to capture excess liquidity's impact on inflation. Key findings reveal that PMS, AGO, and HHK have significant and distinct effects on inflation, with PMS and AGO driving the largest increases in CPI. Gas price also contribute to inflation, but its impact is moderated by a substitution effect, where consumers shift to gas in response to rising prices of HHK and other household cooking energy sources. This substitution effect reduces the inflationary pressure from gas, making its overall contribution to CPI less pronounced. Importantly, State Revenue per capita income is positively correlated with inflation, highlighting the role of federal transfers in exacerbating demand-pull inflation. For policymakers, these findings emphasize the importance of targeted interventions to stabilize energy prices, particularly PMS, AGO and federal transfers in shaping local economic dynamics and inflationary pressures. This targeted interventions to stabilize energy prices are vital for mitigating inflationary pressures in Nigerian states, as they account for regional economic differences, ensuring more effective and equitable economic stability across the country.

This study examines the influence of global stock indices and macroeconomic conditions in Indonesia on the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI). The global stock indices analyzed in this study are the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), Nikkei 225 (N225), Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite (SSE), Strait Singapore index. The macroeconomic indicators that analyzed in this study are the inflation rate, the US dollar exchange rate against the Indonesian rupiah, and the BI rate. This study was conducted using secondary data. The research period was 3 years for 36 months from January 2018 to December 2020. The data used in this study are secondary data with a sample collection method using Purposive Sampling against JCI. Data analysis in this study was carried out using Microsoft Office Excel 2016, as well as hypothesis testing using panel data regression analysis with the Eviews program version 10.0 with a significance level of 5%. Research Results The results showed that in the short term, Index DJIA, Nikkei Index 225, Interest rates positively affect the movement of JCI. This suggests that an increase in the DJIA index, Nikkei 225 Index, and interest rates will result in an increase in the JCI, While Shanghai Index, STI, Inflation does not affect the JCI.